Ohio: Litmus Test for General Election?

No Republican has ever assumed the presidency without winning the Buckeye State. What’s more, since 1960, the state of Ohio has picked the winner of every presidential election.

Demographically, Ohio is similar to Michigan, with a majority of white, blue-collar voters as well as “Reagan Democrats.” In Michigan’s primary contest, Donald Trump won handily with 36.5 percent of the vote, but Gov. John Kasich pulled off a strong third-place finish to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

The reason Trump had such a strong showing in Michigan comes down to this: It’s the economy, stupid. Trump was able to claim victory in Michigan due to its local economy and its residents’ views on trade. Michigan voters are wary about jobs, since many of theirs have been shipped overseas, specifically in the auto industry. Exit polls show more than half of Michigan Republican voters agree with Trump’s stance that trade policies are taking jobs away from the United States.

The same thing applies in Ohio, which has also suffered job losses and drastic economic change.

About 17 percent of Ohio’s economy is generated by manufacturing, compared with about 12 percent of the U.S. economy. According to Ohio’s Department of Jobs and Family Services, the state lost a devastating 166,000 manufacturing jobs — a 20 percent drop — from 2007-2009. It has regained about 50,000 since. Since Kasich became governor in 2011, manufacturing jobs grew each year, rising nearly 7 percent in Kasich’s first three years alone.

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Recent polls show Kasich neck-and-neck with Trump, and some even show him polling ahead of Trump — which is to be expected since it’s the governor’s home state and his strong economic policies have deeply impacted job growth there. Kasich has even emulated Trump in some respects when it comes to tough talk on the economy. The Ohio governor has touted himself as coming from a blue-collar family who understands the plight of hard-working Americans.

Which is probably why Kasich has crossover appeal. According to an interview with the Ohio Republican Chairman Matt Borges in the Columbus Dispatch, Kasich won in Lucas, Cuyahoga and Mahoning counties in his 2014 re-election; those are Democratic strongholds.

Ohio isn’t just about the primary contest, though. It’s about the general election. Ohio is a swing state that holds a lot of cards on the electoral college map. In order for Trump to win, if he is the GOP nominee he will need to cultivate appeal among Republicans, working-class Democrats and independents to beat the Democratic nominee — much as Kasich did.

There appears to be good news for Trump in regard to his crossover appeal. Reuters reported that the vice president of a local union chapter in Canton, Ohio, has taken notice of the growing support for Trump among his members. Trump’s promise to bring back jobs that have gone to China and Mexico and to get tough on trade is resonating among people who have seen their jobs outsourced, especially in the Midwest.

The billionaire businessman also has been able to connect with voters whose incomes are less than $50,000, a demographic that makes up almost half of American households — one that Romney lost in the 2012 election. In Ohio alone, the median income is $45,090.

Hillary Clinton’s talk about outsourcing and supporting TPP is going to have a real effect on her campaign among white, blue-collar voters who might traditionally vote Democrat. This time, however, they might switch because of their faith in Trump to bring jobs back and make America great again.