It’s True, Democratic Midterm Advantage Nearly Gone

Fresh polls this week confirm a trend that is getting harder to deny: The Democrats’ once-formidable lead in the so-called generic congressional ballot has shriveled to a single point in one survey half a year before midterm elections.

The latest evidence comes from Reuters/Ipos, which published a poll Monday indicating that Democrats lead by a single percentage point on the question of which party voters favor for Congress. An Economist/YouGov survey released Monday pegged the Democrats’ lead at 5 points.

That’s a far cry from the winter, when some polls were forecasting a double-digit lead for the donkeys. A lead that big, if it held up on Election Day, would produce a wipeout of historic proportions.

Polling, the historical performance of the party in the White House during midterms, numerous Republican incumbent retirements, and the results of special elections had created a consensus that a blue wave would crest over the country from sea to shining sea.

The main thing in doubt was whether Democrats would regain a House majority by large or small margins.

To counter the trend, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has set fundraising records on the way toward a midterm election goal of $250 million. That gives the GOP a significant advantage over the cash-strapped Democratic National Committee (DNC).

“The Republican National Committee knows what we’re up against this November,” party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel wrote in The Hill Sunday. “We know we’re facing tough historical trends, and many in the mainstream media have all but called this election a loss for Republicans. But we’ve defied history before, and the Republican Party is in prime position to do it again in 2018.”

Much can happen in six months, but the latest round of polling must have Republicans feeling better about their prospects than they were earlier this year. Consider:

• The 5-point advantage for Democrats in the Economist/YouGov poll compares with 9 points in a previous survey released the first week of May.
• The 1-point advantage in the Reuters/Ipsos poll is down from 6 points in a survey conducted the last week of April.
• A Rasmussen Reports poll in early May, showing a 6-point lead, was up 1 point from one the company conducted the previous month. But Rasmussen on Monday pegged President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 50 percent.
• A CNN poll in early May showed Democrats with a 3-point lead, half of the party’s advantage in March and down from 16 points in February.

A Gallup poll on Monday also provided a boost to Republicans who hope to run on an improving economy since Trump took office. The venerable polling organization reported that 67 percent of respondents indicated that they believe now is a good time to find a quality job in the United States.

That is the most optimistic response Gallup has gotten since it first started asking the question in 2001. Never before, in fact, had it reached even 15 percent. It has improved 25 points since Trump won the 2016 presidential election.

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Majorities of both men and women and all age, income and education groups expressed optimism.

Even as the unemployment rate started to tumble toward the end of Barack Obama’s presidency, according to Gallup, many people remained skeptical about whether the newly created jobs were good ones.

“However, with Trump’s election, Republicans gained confidence that the economy would produce quality jobs, and a sizable percentage of Democrats held onto the belief that decisions made during Obama’s presidency created the conditions needed for the economy to prosper,” Gallup contributor Jim Norman wrote on the company’s website.

“With unemployment continuing to drop,” he continued, “Americans now survey the job market with a higher level of confidence that jobs are available and that the jobs are ones worth having.”

PoliZette senior writer Brendan Kirby can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter.