PENSACOLA, Florida — It’s a little less than two months before Election Day, and the Sunshine State is settling into the is quadrennial role as the mega-state that can’t make up its mind.

This unpredictable election campaign has seen an expanded map of electoral opportunities for both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton. Some polls have shown Clinton within striking distance in Georgia and Arizona, which Republicans almost never lose. Surveys in deep blue Rhode Island and New Jersey, meanwhile, have given Clinton only single-digit leads.

“In Northwest Florida, he’ll win big, because we’re so military-centric,” said. “But it remains to be seen in Marco territory.”

Through it all, though, Florida remains the same.

“Demographics drive it when you think about it,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, whose latest survey showed a head-to-head tie, with both candidates at 47 percent. The current RealClearPolitics polling average gives Clinton an edge of just .3 percentage points.

Brown said the large state is fairly evenly divided between Republican-leaning and Democratic-leaning voters. The state is geographically balanced — with large metropolitan areas and smaller towns and rural areas — and has significant voting blocs on one side or the other. It all adds up to presidential elections that mostly have been finished with razor-thin margins of victory for one side or the other. Recent gubernatorial contests have been close, as well.

George W. Bush’s 5-point victory in 2004 is the only one of the last four where the difference has been more than 3 percentage points.

[lz_graphiq id=fXcmk949blb]

Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, said he is not surprised that polls show the current race close.

“It’s typical for Florida,” he said. “We’re a pretty divided state. And we’re a pretty partisan state.”

Trump Needs Florida More
Florida’s 29 electoral votes are a juicy prize for both candidates, but experts agree Trump needs the state more than Clinton. She has multiple paths to victory without it. It is difficult to imagine a winning scenario for Trump that does not include Florida.

Who do you think would win the Presidency?

By completing the poll, you agree to receive emails from LifeZette, occasional offers from our partners and that you've read and agree to our privacy policy and legal statement.

Experts identified two keys elements for Trump to carry the state. He needs to win the crucial Interstate 4 corridor, a swath of real estate from Tampa to Orlando that is among the most politically competitive areas of the state. And he needs to rack up a large turnout and margin of victory in the conservative Panhandle region, where Trump spoke on Friday. Last week’s Quinnipiac poll indicated he trails by 2 points in north Florida, a region that includes the Panhandle as part of a much larger area.

[lz_table title=”Florida Panhandle Turnout” source=”Florida Secretary of State”]County,2004,2012
Escambia,75.8%,75.5%
Santa Rosa,70%,66.2%
Okaloosa,70.6%,73.9%
Walton,73.4%,74.7%
Holmes,76%,72.4%
Washington,72.5%,75.8%
Bay,74.3%,71.2%
Jackson,73.4%,72.7%
Calhoun,72%,75.3%
Gulf,76%,79.5%
|Republican Vote Percentage
|County,2004,2012
Escambia,65%,60%
Santa Rosa,77%,76%
Okaloosa,77%,74%
Walton,73%,75%
Holmes,77%,84%
Washington,71%,73%
Bay,71%,71%
Jackson,61%,64%
Calhoun,63%,71%
Gulf,66%,70%
[/lz_table]

The challenge for Trump is that there may not be much room to improve on Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance in the 10 counties west of the Apalachicola River. Turnout exceeded the statewide average in all but two of the counties in that election.

What’s more, Romney won a higher percentage of the vote than George W. Bush did in his winning 2004 campaign in all but four of those counties.

Trump fans attending Friday’s rally in Pensacola expressed confidence he will win the state in November and that their region will hold up its end of the bargain.

“He’s not as bombastic as he was,” said Dan Abbey, a 71-year-old Navy veteran who lives in Pensacola and switched to Trump after Ben Carson dropped out of the primary race. “But bombast is what got him through the primaries. But now is the time to be presidential. And he is.”

For Bill Hackmeyer, who was wearing a T-shirt reading “Get On The Trump Train Or Get Run Over,” Trump was also his second choice. Although he supported Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the primaries, he said he has no qualms about Trump now. He said he believes Trump will romp in his home area along the Florida Gulf Coast.

“It’s totally Republican country,” he said.

Don Butler, who lives in nearby Lamar, agreed. He said he is less confident about the Miami area, a populous region that backed Sen. Marco Rubio in the primary but that is a Democratic stronghold in general elections.

“In Northwest Florida, he’ll win big, because we’re so military-centric,” said. “But it remains to be seen in Marco territory.”

Butler said the stakes are higher than normal.

“This is arguably the most important election in the history of the United States,” he said.

Florida’s Changing Hispanic Vote
Another key factor will be Florida’s Hispanic vote, which has changed rapidly over the past couple of decades.

“Florida’s Hispanics used to be disproportionately very Cuban and very Republican,” said Brown, the Quinnipiac pollster. “But over the last several years there’s been an influx of Hispanics who are not from Cuba.”

[lz_related_box id=”203565″]

Wagner, of Florida Atlantic also questioned whether the Trump campaign has the organizational muscle to put him over the top. Clinton has more offices and more operatives in the state, and Wagner said that could make the different in a close race.

Trump is an unquestioned master at drawing crowds. His speech Friday at the Pensacola Bay Center was packed, and he claimed thousands of people outside could not get in.

But Wagner said there is not a strong correlation between the size of rallies and the number of votes on Election Day.

“Just because a candidate gets a big crowd really doesn’t mean he can turn out a lot of voters,” he said.

Brown is not venturing a prediction about an election that is will two months away.

“It’s hard to know,” he said. “We’ll find out in November.”