Hillary Out-Organized in Nevada, South Carolina

Sen. Bernie Sanders is beating Hillary Clinton on the ground in the next two states to vote, threatening to swamp her with double upsets following his victory in New Hampshire.

With less than two weeks until the Feb. 27 South Carolina Democratic primary, Clinton is leading Sanders in the polls — but vastly trailing him in terms of organization. The only recent poll in Nevada, where the caucus is Feb. 20, puts Clinton and Sanders in a tie at 45 percent, but again, Sanders’ organization appears stronger.

The problem is a replay of 2008, when Clinton was out-organized state by state by then-Sen. Barack Obama and lost the nomination.

Clinton lacks any real political infrastructure in South Carolina. The Sanders campaign says it has more than 240 staffers on the ground in the Palmetto State while, according to MSNBC, Clinton last week had just 14 — a vast difference that could have big implications when it comes to turning out the vote.

In Nevada, Sanders has over 100 staffers on the ground and has more than doubled his paid staff there in the month leading up to the caucus. But, just as in South Carolina, the Clinton campaign trails Sanders in ground operations with only about 55 staffers on the ground.

“If Bernie Sanders has a campaign that is fueled by over two million people who have given an average of $27, you can imagine the amount of people showing up at offices to make calls and knock on doors,” said a Democratic strategist who preferred to remain anonymous. “In almost every campaign, that grassroots enthusiasm reciprocates over to action in the field.”

The Sanders campaign says it is leaving no stone unturned when it comes to voter contact operations in South Carolina. Sanders operatives know they have an uphill battle when it comes to breaking through Clinton’s familiarity in South Carolina and her support among African Americans, who number heavily among Democrats in the state. According to a spokesperson for the Sanders campaign, the campaign has made over one million voter contact attempts, including door knocks and phone calls. “We have momentum coupled with ground game and it is helping to fuel this political revolution,” the spokesperson said.

The Clinton campaign appears to be banking on high name recognition and familiarity in the state rather than a solid ground operation. “Sanders may have more staffers, but the Clintons have been doing well in South Carolina for decades and she also has the help of so many local leaders, pastors and representatives to help turn people out,” said Democratic strategist, Jessica Tarlov.

The Clinton campaign would not disclose how many staffers it has on the ground in South Carolina.

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In Nevada, the Sanders campaign is confident in its ground game, and some Democratic strategists believe it has good reason to be. “You’d be delusional or in denial if you didn’t recognize the enthusiasm gap between the two campaigns,” said Democratic strategist Nomiki Konst. “I would not be surprised if there’s a shock on caucus night, as it’s very difficult for politicos to measure rapid momentum. Bernie has all the excitement [and] money pouring in, and volunteers.”

Sanders, who lost by less than a point to Clinton in Iowa, has installed a large portion of his field team from the Hawkeye State into Nevada. Clinton, in what some presume to be fear of a tight race due to Sanders’ saturation of the state, canceled an appearance in Florida to spend more time in Nevada.

“In Iowa we showed we could go toe-to-toe with Secretary Clinton. “We also showed he could go toe-to-toe with her on the debate stage and now in South Carolina and Nevada we are closing the gaps and a proving we can go toe-to-toe with her in territory where she is familiar,” said Symone Sanders, the national press secretary for the Sanders campaign.