Cruz’s Wisconsin Win May Not Be Bellwether

While Sen. Ted Cruz is claiming that his Wisconsin victory is a “turning point” in his quest for the GOP nomination and points the way to a contested convention, some signs suggest it just might turn out to have been but a brief blip in his campaign prospects.

Because in Wisconsin, the stars aligned from Cruz in a way they may not again.

Cruz’s Wisconsin win is certainly impressive. It was his first open-primary win other than in his home state of Texas. Moreover, Wisconsin is a state hard hit by free trade, and Cruz was able to net as much of the anti-free trade vote as Trump, even though the issue normally helps the tycoon.

He also performed well with other demographics generally favorable to Trump, such as those who are angry with the federal government, those who feel betrayed by the GOP Establishment, and those who believe illegal immigrants should be deported.

[lz_table title=”CNN Wisconsin Exit Polling” source=”CNN”]Trade with other countries takes away US jobs
Cruz,42%
Trump,43%
|Illegal immigrants should be deported
Cruz,45%
Trump,49%
|Support temporary Muslim ban
Cruz,49%
Trump,43%
|Angry at federal government
Cruz,46%
Trump,47%
|Decided to vote in last few days
Cruz,43%
Trump,35%
|Decided to vote in last week
Cruz,48%
Trump,30%
|Self-described independents
Cruz,40%
Trump,40%
[/lz_table]

But part of the reason Cruz won those demographics — and generally, in the state — is an unusual constellation of favorable conditions unlikely to be replicated in other states.

It came on the heels of a number of important endorsements, including popular governor Scott Walker. He also received the valuable endorsement of pro-life group National Right to Life.

Cruz’s campaign also received a boost from conservative talk radio in the state — hosts notable for their virulent and unrelenting criticisms of Trump. Charlie Sykes, an influential Milwaukee area radio host and self-described “hashtag-NeverTrump guy” said Cruz wasn’t even his third choice, but that the candidate is “acceptable enough to Wisconsinites.” Hardly a ringing endorsement, but one that counted.

Wisconsin is also a moderate state with a progressive history and therefore a presumably more moderate Republican base. Indeed, more than six out of 10 Wisconsin voters said illegal aliens should be offered a path to legal status, ABC exit polling showed. Deporting illegal immigrants has been Trump’s signature issue.

And while Cruz may have performed better among those angry at the government in Wisconsin, there are fewer of those voters to begin with in the Badger state. Only a third of respondents said they were angry at the federal government, nearly ten points lower than the average of 40 percent in other states, ABC reported.

[lz_bulleted_list title=”ABC Wisconsin Exit Polling” source=”ABC”]60% of GOP voters favor legal status for illegal immigrants|Only 33% support deportation|Only 33% of GOP voters angry at Fed. Gov|50% of voters looking for experienced candidate|Trump won 51% of those who picked their candidate over one month ago.[/lz_bulleted_list]

Wisconsinites are also apparently more internationalist than most, and Trump’s quasi-isolationist message probably didn’t play as well there. Nearly half of GOP primary voters in Wisconsin said the U.S. should take a more active role in global affairs, but only three in 10 said it should be less active.

The state also has an electorate more inclined to value political experience. Exit polls revealed that almost half of GOP voters there preferred an experienced candidate, slightly higher than the average in other states that have already voted.

And even though Cruz held his own among blue collar voters, the working-class northwest of the state still went to Trump — the only region to do so.

Not only is Wisconsin clearly a state less-predisposed to produce Trump supporters, but it also held its primary following a particularly bad week for Trump, in which his campaign manager was charged with battery and Trump himself was criticized for ill-thought-out comments about abortion.

Of course, it’s difficult to gauge the extent to which Trump’s bad week led to Cruz’s good day, but CNN exit polls certainly suggest large swaths of Badger state Republicans waited until relatively late to decide on their choices, and those who did were only slightly more inclined to go with Cruz. Exit polling performed by ABC also suggests that a majority of those who chose their candidate over a month ago voted for Trump.

But despite all the favorable conditions for Cruz in Wisconsin, and the plethora of potential problems for Trump in the Badger state, Trump lost by only 13 percent. Looking at Wisconsin’s political peculiarities, one could be forgiven for thinking Cruz should have won by more.

The Wisconsin results were good for Cruz and will certainly keep the donations flowing, but a contested convention isn’t quite yet an inevitability. Trump needs 494 out of the remaining 882 delegates to secure the nomination outright. If Cruz expects to stop him, he needs to be able to do better than a 13 point lead in a state he could have won by more.