Alabama GOP Strategist: ‘I Think Moore Is Going to Win This Race’

After getting buried under an avalanche of negative stories accusing him of sexual misconduct, Alabama’s Republican Senate candidate now has led in the past three public polls.

The stakes are high. If Democrat Doug Jones manages to win the December 12 special election to fill the Senate seat once held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, it would cut the GOP majority from 52 to 51 in the 100-member upper chamber.

[lz_related_box id=33303293]

Jones, a former U.S. attorney under President Bill Clinton, had led or tied in four of six surveys taken right after The Washington Post reported allegations by a woman claiming that Roy Moore undressed her when she was 14 years old in 1979, when he was a 32-year-old assistant district attorney in Etowah County.

But Moore, a former state Supreme Court chief justice who gained a national reputation as a firebrand Christian conservative, posted leads of 2, 5 and 6 percentage points in polls taken since November 20.

“He’s clearly bottomed out,” said Jonathan Gray, a Republican strategist in Alabama. “This is a time issue. Don’t get me wrong; he hasn’t recovered.”

Polling by Gray’s firm had detected a steady erosion in support for Moore, with Moore’s lead shrinking to 2 points on November 20. Gray said he plans to poll again on Tuesday. But he said he has confidence in this week’s JMC Analytics poll, which showed Moore up by 5 points.

Gray said his sense has been that Moore is still the favorite. But he added that he was waiting to see if more serious allegations would emerge. Of those who have accused him of inappropriate behavior — mainly those who were teenagers but over the age of consent — the one accusing him of serious criminal conduct was a woman who appeared with celebrity lawyer Gloria Allred.

The woman, Beverly Young Nelson, said Moore tried to force her to have sex after offering her a ride home from the restaurant where she worked when she was 16. But Gray said he believes Moore’s campaign has succeeded in raising doubts about the veracity of the allegation.

“I’m perfectly comfortable getting over the fence now and saying I think Moore is going to win this race,” he said. “It’s not going to be pretty. It’s going to be close.”

Brett Doster, a spokesman for Moore, said the campaign is confident.

“All of the polling shows that we have a tailwind of momentum as we head into the final two weeks,” he said.

Doster said Alabamians have rejected the allegations and now are focusing on Jones, whom he described as an “extreme, left-wing liberal.”

The Jones campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Steve Flowers, a former Alabama state representative who now writes a political column for 65 newspapers, said he does not believe the sexual-abuse allegations changed many minds because opinions about Moore were strong before.

“Among voters in Alabama, they know who he is,” he said. “He’s very polarizing.”

Flowers said that among all Alabama residents, Moore has a core base of about 30 percent of the people, while the other 70 percent have a negative opinion.

“The reason he wins is his supporters are more ardent and fervent and show up to vote, especially in special elections,” he said.

The news coverage has reinforced negative opinions among voters who already did not like him, Flowers said. He added that the question is, will they actually vote? To win, he said, Jones needs a big turnout among black residents and younger voters — groups that tend to be less reliable voters.

That will be a challenge in a special election held in the middle of the Christmas season.

“A 75-year-old evangelical deacon in rural Alabama is more likely to vote than a 38-year-old soccer mom from Homewood,” he said.

If Jones falls short, it will not be for lack of resources. According to the ad-tracking group Advertising Analytics, his campaign has outspent Moore in radio and television spots $5.6 million to $600,000 since the GOP nominee won his primary runoff.

The ads have highlighted the allegations and tried to tie them to a charge first leveled during the GOP primary that Moore is soft on child predators because of a dissent he wrote in a criminal case before the state Supreme Court.

Related: Mitch McConnell Gives Up Call for Roy Moore to Step Aside

Gray compared the Moore campaign to Herbie the Love Bug, a dented, falling-apart jalopy racing across the finish line ahead of sleeker models. He said if Democrats can’t win a race against a flawed, underfunded opponent who has no help from the national party, it is hard to imagine them winning a Senate seat in the state for the foreseeable future.

Doster, the Moore spokesman, said the campaign has saved its resources so that it achieves parity over the air with the Jones campaign in the final two weeks. He noted that Moore has won elections before despite getting outspent.

“Roy Moore typically gets outspent because our checks and our contributors don’t come from the Beltway crowd,” he said.