A Win for Populism

Donald Trump solidified his spot as the presumptive GOP nominee with a landslide win in Indiana on Tuesday, defying political physics, the political class, and “politics as usual.” Trump’s win serves as a poignant moment in GOP politics — the instant that “the people” had their say after years of being unheard by the ruling class.

The populist movement has been the dominant theme of the 2016 race on both sides of the aisle — a complete rejection of the political system as the people crave a change. In an election year when being a member of the ruling class and moneyed donor base no longer qualifies a candidate to be president, even experience and political expertise are frowned upon. That didn’t work in 2008 or 2012, so time for a change, the people said.

Back then, the base bought into a party that has largely ignored them and left them out of the process. But people who have previously been politically apathetic are now paying attention to electoral politics, causing an uproar in the American electorate and benefiting Trump and an outsider on the other side, Bernie Sanders.

The rise of Trump is a direct result of the failure of the Republican Party to keep in touch and in tune with its base. For years, the GOP has put up candidates who were told “it was their turn” and the voters accepted it — but not anymore. Trump provided a large megaphone to those who felt ignored and cast aside by their party, amplifying a resounding message.

[lz_graphiq id=3zaAXCpLHCJ]

The voters have spoken and the party must respect that, which means all talk of blocking a Trump nomination at the Republican National Convention in July must end now. Trump has rightfully won the long and hard-fought primary battle, like it or not, and for the sake of the party he must not be denied the nomination.

With Trump as their champion, the people have been brought into the fold. The billionaire has become the unlikely champion of the white working class, and their support is the foundation of his candidacy. Exit polling from Indiana showed that 57 percent of Trump’s supporters were men, 57 percent had no college degree, and 64 percent identified as “angry” voters.

The GOP has traditionally had a problem with support among those without a college education making $50,000 or less — an area where Trump now dominates. In 2012, Romney won households making $50,000 or more and Obama won households making less than $50,000.

Traditionally, education does have an impact on voter turnout, but Trump shattered turnout records in the GOP primary. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 75 percent of those with a bachelor’s degree and 81 percent of those with an advanced degree turned out to vote in the 2012 general election, whereas only 53 percent with a high school degree and 64 percent with some college showed up.

The key for Trump is to wield the same influence among the non-educated in the general election and encourage them to show up to the polls. But he cannot ignore the college-educated voters either and needs to begin to craft his message for them as well — which would make for a winning ticket.

This election has shed light on one fact in particular: The party cannot win without the people. Introspection is a tough thing and hindsight is always 20-20, but the party needs to take a good long look at how it got here.

Voter anger peaked in 2010 — the height of the Tea Party movement that led to Republicans gaining a majority in Congress. Rasmussen polling shows that 63 percent of Republican voters are very angry with the policies of the federal government, even though Republicans currently hold a majority in both the House and Senate. The voters sent these leaders to Washington hoping for change, yet they got more of the same when the politicians didn’t deliver.

[lz_graphiq id=aWWHPRjBAVv]

What’s more, exit polling from nearly every nominating contest this cycle has shown just how angry and dissatisfied Republican voters are. The GOP never seemed to learn that it needed the support and enthusiasm of the base, but now that enthusiasm will be put to the test as the candidate with mass appeal within the base has become the likely nominee. Will the people follow?