A Penny Saved is Not a Delegate Earned

A shocking new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Donald Trump falling into second place nationally for the first time since early November 2015, raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of the Trump campaign’s strategy.

Part of the strategy that’s come under fire is Trump’s unwillingness to spend heavily on his candidacy. The new poll, while it may be an outlier — a CBS poll released Thursday has him well ahead — nevertheless serves as a warning that Trump may want to rethink his relative parsimony.

The poll, conducted between Feb. 14-16, has Trump at 26 percent, behind Ted Cruz, who sits at 28 percent. Marco Rubio comes in at third with 17 percent support, while John Kasich and Ben Carson are in fourth and fifth place, with 11 and 10 points respectively.

[lz_table title=”Trump vs. Cruz in Wall St. Journal Poll” source=”Wall St. Journal/NBC”]February 2016
Cruz, 28%
Trump, 26%
|January 2016
Trump,   33%
Cruz,   20%
|December 2015
Trump,27%
Cruz,22%
|October 2015
Trump,   23%
Cruz,   10%
[/lz_table]

As of Dec. 31, Trump’s campaign had spent $12.5 million, according to the Federal Election Commission, far from the $28.4 million spent by Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign, $22.6 million spent by Sen. Marco Rubio, and $24.3 million by Jeb Bush, his chief competitors. What’s more, each of his rivals have raised tens of millions more than Trump in super PAC money, while Trump’s super PAC has pulled in less than $2 million.

Trump suggested Friday he has escalated his spending since the beginning of the year, saying on “The Laura Ingraham Show” that he had spent “probably” $20 million. “I spent already, a lot, and I will continue,” he said. Nevertheless, the total surely trails spending by his rivals by a large amount.

Trump requires a detailed weekly budget from Corey Lewandowski, his campaign manager, and his aversion to spending his own money is so great he refused to invest in efforts to ensure his name was on the ballot in as many states as possible, the Wall Street Journal reported in August 2015.

Trump has also apparently resisted pleas from staff to increase the number of in-person campaign stops on his schedule, preferring instead to stick with the free advertising he was getting in the form of round-the-clock media coverage.

[lz_table title=”Campaign Dollars Spent as of 01/31/16″ source=”Federal Election Commission”]
Cruz,                       $28.4M
Bush,                       $24.3M
Rubio,                       $22.6M
Trump,                       $12.5M
[/lz_table]

Responding to criticism about his penurious nature — and warnings that his light spending strategy could be his campaign’s undoing — Trump announced at the end of December a $2 million-per-week ad campaign in time for the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary. But that effort was not to be the big, beautiful ad campaign Trump led the media to believe was coming: By week two, the campaign’s spending on TV spots dropped to $765,000 — just over a third of the $2 million spent during week one.

While FEC data released recently shows Trump spent the most money on his campaign in the 4th quarter of 2015 — roughly $10 million of his personal fortune — it’s tough to tell on what exactly in Iowa he spent it. Trump paid for no direct-mail program, no effort to identify his supporters and the strength of their support, no staff dedicated to polling potential voters and creating a targeted ad strategy.

But it’s possible that Trump’s prudence with the purse strings is a result of his feeling that his money would be better spent elsewhere. FEC filings show Trump has spent $1.8 million — nearly 15 percent of the money he’s so far spent campaigning — on merchandise. Over half of that was spent on the now-iconic “Make America Great Again” trucker hats.

Trump’s focus on branding was brilliant when the primaries were in the relatively distant future and he was one of many candidates. The power of the Trump brand enabled him to harness anti-Establishment fury; but as the field narrows, it might not be enough to guarantee his securing the GOP nomination.

Cruz’s unexpected victory in Iowa and Kasich’s surprising strength in New Hampshire showed that building a strong brand is different from persuading undecided Republicans to buy into that brand. Donald Trump has spent money building a powerful image. Now he must spend more money building a powerful ground game to sell that brand.