12 Bellwether Counties to Watch Tonight

Today’s election will be won or lost in a handful of battleground states, and within those, a small number of counties will take center stage.

If Republican Donald Trump loses to Democrat Hillary Clinton among college-educated, non-Hispanic whites, as some polls suggest, he will have to compensate elsewhere. With Trump faring no batter or even worse than Republicans typically do with minorities as a whole, that means running up the score among less-educated white voters. A LifeZette analysis of census data in seven states — Colorado, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia — shows the magnitude of the challenge.

Counties with high numbers of less-educated whites mostly already have been voting Republican even before Trump. In those states, 133 jurisdictions (cities are independent of counties in Virginia) have white populations where less than 15 percent have four-year college degrees or better. President Obama in 2012 carried just 13 of those counties.

So putting together a winning coalition from those places probably requires luring new voters to the polls.

Meanwhile, Obama carried 43 of the 55 counties in those states where college graduates make up at least 40 percent of the white population.

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Here are the counties to watch tonight:

Adams County, Colorado
Principal city: Thornton
College-educated whites: 28.5 percent
The Skinny: The county has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1988. With a college-educated white population under 30 percent, it would appear to offer Trump a shot. That path is complicated by the fact that Hispanics make up 28 percent of the population. If Trump were to win the county, however, it could signal a victory.

Pueblo County, Colorado
Principal city: Pueblo
College-educated whites: 27.4 percent
The Skinny: The county is much like Adams — but it has a higher share of Latino voters and a longer track record of voting Democrat. Winning here or coming closer than expected would be a sign Trump could take the state.

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Flagler County, Florida
Principal city: Bunnell
College-educated whites: 23 percent
The Skinny: In Florida, the famous bellwether counties are populous Hillsborough and Penellas in the Tampa Bay metro area, and they no doubt will be important today. But for a sign of whether Trump’s message resonated with less-educated white, check out Flagler County on the Florida East Coast. It is not large enough to swing Florida, but it has been politically competitive and its white population is less-educated than the national average. George W. Bush and President Obama each won it once and lost it once in their two elections.

Macomb County, Michigan
Principal city: Warren
College-educated whites: 22.9 percent
The Skinny: Macomb has been a bellwether county since the days of the “Reagan Democrats” in the 1980s, and also has been receptive to populist conservative candidates like Pat Buchanan. Since the 1990s, it has mostly voted Democrat in presidential elections, although the margins generally are close and Bush managed to win it narrowly in 2004. It’s hard to see Trump pulling off an upset in the Wolverine State without winning here big.

Monroe County, Michigan
Principal city: Monroe
College-educated whites: 18.5 percent
The Skinny: Situated in the southeastern corner of the state, Monroe County has voted Democrat five of the last six elections. But the margins have been close, and the county has a relatively small proportion of college graduates. This is another county Trump likely will need to win if he has a shot at Michigan.

Cumberland County, North Carolina
Principal city: Fayetteville
College-educated whites: 25.4 percent
The Skinny: Cumberland is one of North Carolina’s few Democratic-leaning, majority-white counties that does not have a large college-educated white population. Democrats have won five of six presidential elections there. Obama’s 2012 victory was not close, but Bush won it 2004 and came within 497 votes of taking in 2000. More than a third of its residents are black. Without Obama, if black turnout falls, Trump could sneak up in a place like this.

Buncombe County, North Carolina
Principal city: Asheville
College-educated whites: 37.1 percent
The Skinny: Buncombe is a true bellwether, having backed the winner in every presidential election dating to 1964. It’s college-educated white population is above the national average, presenting a challenge for Trump. But its share of whites with college degrees is not so high that it should be out of reach, either.

Mahoning County, Ohio
Principal city: Youngstown
College-educated whites: 24.5 percent
The Skinny: Mahoning long has been a union-heavy, Democratic stronghold, backing the party’s presidential nominees in 10 straight elections. But Trump’s message on trade could have been designed specifically for Youngstown, a former manufacturing powerhouse that has fallen on hard times.

Trumbull County, Ohio
Principal city: Warren
College-educated whites: 18 percent
The Skinny: Part of the Youngstown metro area, it also is a Democratic stronghold that could be receptive to Trump’s message. It has gone Democrat since 1976. If that changes today, mark Ohio for Trump.

Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania
Principal city: Scranton
College-educated whites: 26.1 percent
The Skinny: Lackawanna has voted Democrat in seven straight elections, but it is rich with white voters who did not graduate from college. That presents a prime opportunity for Trump’s economic message.

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Luzerne County, Pennsylvania
Principal city: Wilkes-Barre
College-educated whites: 22.1 percent
The Skinny: Luzerne is a lot like neighboring Lackawanna, with which it shares a metro area. It has gone Democrat six elections in a row. But it also has lots of the kinds of white voters that Trump campaign is trying to appeal to.

Erie County, Pennsylvania
Principal city: Erie
College-educated whites: 26.5 percent
The Skinny: If Trump pulls off an upset in the Keystone State, it will be because he overperforms in places like Erie. Democrats enjoy a huge voter-registration advantage and the party has won seven straight presidential contests. But it has been competitive at times. Bush lost twice by single digits. If Trump can persuade large numbers of Democrats to cross party lines here, it likely is a sign he is winning the state.