Why GOP ‘Whiners’ Trail Trump

At a time when several candidates in the Republican race for the 2016 presidential nomination are lamenting the “tone” of the race, Donald Trump’s “tone-deafness” is paying big dividends.

Since elbowing his way into the race on June 16, critics have suggested Trump has offended Hispanic immigrants, U.S. prisoners of war, and many of his fellow GOP rivals — and yet the real estate magnate and television personality stands atop poll after poll even as his challengers plead for “civility.”

On Tuesday, a survey of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire put Trump at 24 percent, twice the total of the runner-up, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. On Sunday, a CNN/ORC poll showed Trump at 18 percent, followed by Bush at 15 percent. Also Sunday, an NBC/Marist poll of New Hampshire voters found a similar result — Trump at 21 percent and Bush at 14 percent.

Trump’s lead in the polls comes amid a flurry of hand-wringing over the tone of the GOP race. Bush on Tuesday scolded former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who earlier compared the Iran arms deal to the Holocaust. At a campaign stop July 14 in Iowa, Bush lamented “Trump’s rhetoric of divisiveness.”

“I think he has hijacked the debate,” groused Sen. Lindsey Graham on July 13. “I think he is a wrecking ball for the future of the Republican party … we need to push back.”

Graham, of South Carolina, went on to call Trump a “jackass,” prompting Trump to publicly reveal Graham’s private cell phone number at a campaign event.

Dethroned former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia last week called on Republicans to tone down the rhetoric and deliver a more inclusive message, referring to Trump’s comments as “mean and divisive.” Cantor lost his seat in Congress in 2014 to a little-known challenger.

But with such success in the polls despite his harsh tone, are GOP primary voters actually signaling that they prefer Trump’s bolder rhetoric?

Some observers say so.

“Voters are tired of programmed politicians, and Trump is not one,” said Matthew Corrigan, chairman of the Department of Political Science at the University of North Florida and author of a 2014 book on Bush. “At some point his rhetoric may wear thin, but right now it’s such a refreshing change that it’s showing up in his poll numbers.”

“The people who are criticizing him — people in the media, or in academics, or the Republican establishment — those are the same people that voters are tired of. So it kind of gives him credibility,” said Corrigan.

“It’s what on his mind, and it’s not politically correct, but the people who are criticizing him — people in the media, or in academics, or the Republican establishment — those are the same people that voters are tired of. So it kind of gives him credibility.”

At the University of Iowa, associate professor of political science Timothy Hagle said Trump may have the rarest of gifts for a presidential candidate — an immunity of sorts from his more provocative statements.

“Normally if someone is known for strong rhetoric, they get dismissed fairly quickly,” Hagle said. “But unlike other candidates, Trump’s been around for long time, and his TV show has been around for a long time, so he’s a known quantity and people are looking at him differently, not just as a politician.”

Hagle likened the splash Trump has made in the 2016 race to that of former actor and wrestler Jesse Ventura, who ran for Minnesota’s governorship as a Reform Party candidate in 1998 and won.

However, both Corrigan and Hagle said Trump would do well to be cautious, noting that even he has said in interviews that he would tone down his rhetoric during the general election and if he was elected president. And, Corrigan said, the real coming threat to Trump’s candidacy may be not from the media or the Democrats – but from among Trump’s own GOP colleagues.

“At some point, all of these statements start lining up, so if he becomes a real threat, you could see a real battle within the Republican Party,” Corrigan said.

For his part, Hagle cautioned voters not to pay too much attention to the presidential polls, given that the nomination race is still in such an early phase.

“Being at the top of the polls temporarily is not necessarily a guarantee of anything, so I’m not sure how long (Trump) will last,” Hagel said. “Look at the 2012 race, when a lot of people were up high at one point but then faded. We’ll have to see if the novelty wears off.”

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