A new poll released Monday and shared by the New Jersey Republican Party shows a significant shift in voter sentiment across the state, with a majority of residents now saying New Jersey is heading in the wrong direction under Democratic leadership.

According to the data, only 33 percent of New Jersey voters believe the state is currently on the “right track,” while 54 percent say it is on the “wrong track.”

The results arrive less than a year ahead of the 2025 gubernatorial election and suggest a potentially competitive race between the state’s two major political parties.

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Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill currently leads Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli by just three points, with Sherrill polling at 45 percent and Ciattarelli at 42 percent.

The remaining 12 percent of voters said they are undecided.

🚨 NJ GOV POLL:

🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 45%
🔴 @Jack4NJ: 42%
⚪ Undecided: 12%

🔥 Only 33% think NJ is on the “right track” under Democrat rule.

54% say “wrong track.”

New Jersey is ready for change. #NJGov2025

— New Jersey GOP (@NJGOP) June 16, 2025

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The poll results follow a report from WHYY highlighting early indicators of Democratic vulnerabilities in the state.

While President Donald Trump did not win New Jersey in the 2024 election, he significantly closed the gap from the 2020 race.

In 2024, Trump lost New Jersey to Kamala Harris by just six percentage points.

That marks a major shift from 2020, when Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 16 points.

During a recent tele-rally held in support of Jack Ciattarelli, President Trump commented on the changing political climate in the Garden State.

“New Jersey’s ready to pop out of that blue horror show,” Trump said.

Trump’s performance in traditionally Democratic areas has also caught the attention of political analysts.

In Passaic County, which includes large Latino and Islamic communities, Trump made notable gains. He carried the city of Passaic outright and increased his share of the vote in nearby Paterson.

Statewide, support for Trump among Latino voters in New Jersey rose sharply.

In the 2024 election, 43 percent of Latino voters in the state backed Trump, up from 28 percent in 2020.

The shift has placed additional pressure on Democrats, who now face the challenge of regaining ground with this key voting bloc ahead of both the 2025 gubernatorial election and the next round of congressional midterms.

Democratic candidates and party strategists are increasingly turning away from polarizing issues such as immigration and focusing more on the economy and public safety—areas that polling shows are top priorities for voters.

“At the end of the day, if you’re worried about paying your bills and being safe at night, everything else is secondary,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a Democratic candidate, said in a recent interview with the Associated Press.

“I think that is front and center in the Latino community.”

With the governor’s race expected to be one of the most closely watched contests in 2025, both parties are expected to ramp up outreach and campaign efforts across New Jersey, especially in swing counties and communities with shifting demographics.

Republican operatives are optimistic about their chances of flipping the governorship, while Democrats are working to mobilize their base and rebuild trust with key constituencies.

The New Jersey Republican Party says the latest polling reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction and a potential opening to make gains at both the state and federal levels in the upcoming election cycles.