Politics

Newsom Facing Recall And Growing Unpopularity

But probably not enough to lose.

Nothing would he better for the state of California than to boot Gavin Newsom out of the governor’s office. But don’t bet on it. These are the same leftist voters who put him there in the first place. It’s like asking a crack addict to go cold turkey, a proposition unlikely of success.

Is there a possibility? Sure. Democrats could be really complacent, thinking it’s a won race already, and not go to the polls. There could be a massive GOP and anti-Newsom turnout. However, California Democrats are working hard against that on very favorable political terrain. Their efforts should pay off. This is not 2003, California is very different, and nobody like Schwarzenegger is running. Ergo…

FNC: Californians likely to vote in September’s recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom are divided on whether to oust the Golden State’s first-term embattled Democratic governor, according to a new poll.

And a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times survey released on Tuesday indicates that conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, who won a court battle last week to appear on the ballot, is the current front-runner among the nearly four dozen candidates running to replace Newsom, should he be recalled. Forty-seven percent of likely California voters questioned in the poll said they supported recalling Newsom, with 50% opposed.

But among the wide pool of all registered voters, support for recalling the governor drops to 36%, with 51% supporting keeping Newsom in office. The poll indicates how crucial turnout will be in the Sept. 14 election in a state where registered Democrats greatly outnumber registered Republicans, but Republicans appear to be more motivated to cast ballots in the recall contest. Although Republicans only account for roughly a quarter of all registered voters in California, the poll indicated they made up a third of those most likely to vote in the recall election. Voters will be asked two questions on the Newsom recall ballots, which will be mailed to California voters starting in the middle of August. The first question is whether the governor should be removed from office. If more than 50% support removing Newsom, the second question offers a list of candidates running to replace the governor.”

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Mark DiCamillo, director of a recent Berkeley IGS Poll, said, “Republicans were much more likely to say they’d be turning out.” He said that “Republicans are expressing much greater interest in voting in the recall” than Democrats or independents. DiCamillo added that “there’s greater complacency among Democratic voters. Nearly all of them think Newsom is going to survive this, and I think that’s holding back some of their voters from thinking it’s important to vote. Republicans are much more confident that they think they can turn the governor from office.” Perhaps true. And also irreverent. This is a numbers game and the Democrats have them. Game over.

David Kamioner
meet the author

David Kamioner is a veteran of U.S. Army Intelligence and an honors graduate of the University of Maryland's European Division. He also served with the Pershing Nuclear Brigade and the First Infantry Division. Subsequent to that he worked for two decades as a political consultant, was part of the American Red Cross Hurricane Katrina disaster relief effort in Louisiana, ran a homeless shelter for veterans in Philadelphia, and taught as a college instructor. He serves as a Contributing Editor for LifeZette.

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