On populist conservative social media every wannabe pundit is predicting far in advance that Republican Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming will be toast next year.

But, not so fast. Regardless of where you stand on Cheney, basic political logic says if several candidates run against her and she has a thirty percent base, she has at least that, they split up the remaining seventy percent several ways and she is renominated. Wyoming is solid red, so she goes on to win the general election and stays in Congress.

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But no, you say, there’s got to be a front runner already. There is, uh, was…Fox News Reports, “Wyoming state Sen. Anthony Bouchard, a Republican who has emerged as one of the most high-profile primary challengers to Rep. Liz Cheney, said in a Facebook Live video Thursday he impregnated a 14-year-old girl when he was 18…’I don’t know who did this,’ Bouchard said in a video. ‘All I know is we have several reports. We know the company that started this investigation. It’s a political opposition research company. We know who they are. And then it turned into a U.K. media reporter who called me.’

“He also said that his son now ‘almost become my estranged son’ due to some of the choices that the son has made, although he added, ‘I still love him, just like when he was born…It’s just a damn shame that we’ve got to drag it all out,’ Bouchard added. ‘I just hate to see family drug out and relive things.’ ”

So, the frontrunner who has already raised $400,000 is a technical pedophile who hasn’t been Dad of the Year. And if Cheney’s people got this out this early they are playing a very hardcore game. Thus, this guy is toast.

There are others in or looking at the race. Several of them. Cheney opposition research is likely waiting to launch on them at the appropriate time. Trump may endorse one. But then Cheney gets to play the “outside forces are trying to tell Wyoming who to vote for” card, the carpetbagger attack. Westerners are proud independent people and the former president isn’t subtle. Yup, there’s that.

And Liz Cheney comes from a powerhouse family. Dad was Secretary of Defense and veep. They have connections in Wyoming that dwarf that of the former president. They have an international rolodex of donors. She has name recognition and the NRCC won’t get involved in a primary. In fact, they may back her as an incumbent. The press will continue to lionize her. Those GOP primary candidates who do not get Trump’s endorsement may stay in the race anyway. Still so sure Cheney is going to lose now? Conservatives must separate what they want from what will likely happen and act accordingly. Living in fantasyland helps no one but Liz Cheney.