Yes, the Wall Street Journal and NBC hate Trump and would skew polling to hurt his campaign. Yes, it looks like they intentionally oversampled Democrats. But DC reliable rumor has it that even with factoring in polling bias and the usual Republican polling undercount, internals for both campaigns have Biden up at least five points.
If Trump can make the Biden Burisma meeting story stick, with most of the media burying the story, he can turn this around. If he can’t…
The Wall Street Journal has details, “Joe Biden holds a double-digit lead over President Trump less than three weeks from Election Day, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of registered voters finds. Mr. Biden is ahead by 11 points in the national survey, 53% to 42%, following a tumultuous few weeks that included Mr. Trump’s nomination of federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court; the candidates’ contentious, televised debate and the president’s Covid-19 diagnosis and hospitalization. The survey finds Mr. Trump rebounding from a 14-point deficit earlier this month in a poll taken immediately after the debate with Mr. Biden, but still in a weaker position than in September, when he trailed the former vice president by 8 points. Some 50% say they are better off than they were four years ago, compared with 34% who say they are worse off. However, 58% say the country is worse off than four years ago, compared with 38% who say it is better off. Moreover, more than 60% of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction.”
Democrat pollster Peter Hart said, “The 2020 presidential election finds voters looking to heal physically, economically and psychologically.” If Hart is right, and common sense says he is, voters will turn away from a candidate they feel is too divisive, too controversial over a long period. While Biden is also very divisive, the press conditioning is working. Trump is perceived as the more divisive candidate.
What does it mean for the models etc if the NBC/WSJ poll is right and Biden wins up winning by 13 or 14 or some such after leading by ~7 the whole campaign? (I'm not saying this is very likely, but it's not crazy to imagine scenarios where the race totally gets away from Trump.)
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 5, 2020
However, these polls count the popular vote, which is irrelevant. Poll numbers in battleground states are closer. But again, DC scuttlebutt has Biden ahead in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Trump holding Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and maybe Michigan. But the key player is Pennsylvania. Without that Trump will have a hard road to a comeback this late in the game.
Also there is the basic shelf life factor for an incumbent. A presidential incumbent has four years to make the sale to swing voters. If after four years they are still swing voters, the incumbent not made the sale and swings will trend towards the challenger. In this case, Biden.
This piece was written by David Kamioner on October 16, 2020. It originally appeared in DrewBerquist.com and is used by permission.
Read more at DrewBerquist.com:
Trump Wins One Metric That Has Decided Every Presidential Winner Since 1988!
New Details Surrounding Biden Burisma Meeting Could Re-elect Trump
Biden’s Black Church Story Ends Up Being Another Lie
The opinions expressed by contributors and/or content partners are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of LifeZette.