Politics

Here are the Predictions in Key Battleground States as Both Campaigns Make Their Final Push

It's down to the wire.

Image Credit: Fox News Youtube Screenshot

With about two weeks left and a make or break debate in less than a week, both presidential campaigns are ranging the country searching for that edge that will give them a clear win in November. Neither will likely find it, as this baby, perhaps the new norm in American presidential politics, is heading for the Supreme Court.

Which, of course, makes the Senate races all important, as they pick the high court and the Supremes could now be the final arbiter of presidential races.

Where are the campaigns headed to on the map? What’s the status of the battleground races on Sunday two weeks out?

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On Friday Trump started his day by campaigning in Florida. He went to Trump National Doral Miami for Fort Myers, where he delivered remarks on “Protecting America’s Seniors.” From there, Trump he went to Ocala, about two hours north of Orlando, for a Make America Great Again Rally. Biden on Friday made a swing through southeastern Michigan, stopping in Southfield and Detroit. On Saturday both campaigns continued to hammer the battlegrounds. Ditto Sunday.

As a Trump supporter I’ll now look at the battleground state numbers, as my subscription to Masochism Weekly has run out.

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First off, the media is calling certain states battleground states when they are Trump states to encourage Democrats in those states. But don’t be fooled. Georgia, Arizona, and Ohio are all going for Trump. As will several other battleground states. Nevertheless, it may not be enough. As for Republican hopes in Virginia? Foegeddaboudit.

Florida- Trump’s turf, Cubans and the Panhandle make it so. All those Heartland transplants around the I-4 don’t hurt either. Biden is putting a serious move on non-Cuban Latins and blacks here. It won’t work.

North Carolina- Too close for comfort, but probably Trump. It’s the New South, as the Old South voted for racist Democrats.

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Pennsylvania- Not Good. The western part of the state is in serious play and Trump can’t win without it. He needs the west and the rest of the state outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to take the Keystone State, a place that will live up to its nickname in this election. Can’t overemphasize, so much hinges on it. As it’s where I worked as a GOP political consultant for 20 years, makes me wish I had my six-shooters back on.

 

As of Sunday it’s Biden’s to lose.

Iowa- Will flip from 2016 and go for Biden.

Michigan- Could go either way, but leaning Trump. He will be really hurt with a loss here.

Minnesota- Trump could flip it, but probably not.

Wisconsin- Same as Michigan, but leaning Biden.

As of Sunday, Trump will likely lose 2 out of 3 in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He can’t win reelection that way. But, with a very strong debate performance he can take Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and hold Michigan. That’s enough to put him on top before the courts get involved.

David Kamioner
meet the author

David Kamioner is a veteran of U.S. Army Intelligence and an honors graduate of the University of Maryland's European Division. He also served with the Pershing Nuclear Brigade and the First Infantry Division. Subsequent to that he worked for two decades as a political consultant, was part of the American Red Cross Hurricane Katrina disaster relief effort in Louisiana, ran a homeless shelter for veterans in Philadelphia, and taught as a college instructor. He serves as a Contributing Editor for LifeZette.

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