GOP will likely hold on to Senate after primaries, the Squad gains

Marshall in Kansas and Tuberville in Alabama ruin Democrat plans.

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Even if for some godforsaken reason Joe Biden does gain the White House in November —the president’s last Axios interview made that more possible— he will likely still have to deal with GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. That means Biden’s more outrageous plans will die in the Senate and the Democrats will push for a constitutional end run around the Senate. How can we make this prediction? Because Tuesday’s primary results probably killed any chance the Democrats had of taking over the Senate.

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The Democrats had looked at two seats, Kansas and Alabama. They hoped controversial GOP candidates would win in both Senate primaries. But Jeff Sessions lost the GOP Senate primary in Alabama and, on Tuesday, Roger Marshall beat Kris Kobach in the Kansas U.S. Senate primary.

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The president backed Sessions’ opponent, likely new Senator Tommy Tuberville. In deep red Alabama a Tuberville win is almost a given. Doug Jones (D-AL), the short time Democrat incumbent, may have beat Sessions, especially as Trump loathed Sessions and would not endorse him, holding Sessions responsible for his Mueller and Russian hoax issues. But Jones is now toast.

The president didn’t endorse in Kansas, though it is said he has a soft spot in his heart for Kobach, who is ultraconservative on immigration. But Marshall was the favorite and better candidate for the fall. He proved it Tuesday by beating Kobach. As Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, Marshall should be safe. Kobach may get a slot in a second Trump administration if the president wins in November.

These two seats were the linchpin for the Democrat Senate takeover plan. They are now almost surely going GOP. Out the window goes the Democrat plan for controlling both the White House and the entire Congress next year.

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In other primary news, Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) won her campaign for reelection against Detroit City Council member Brenda Jones. That means all current Squad members are safe. The Squad will also likely add at least two members, as Jamaal Bowman had previously beat Eliot Engel in a New York U.S. House primary and, on Tuesday, Cori Bush beat ten-term incumbent Bill Clay in a Missouri Democrat congressional primary. Current projections show Democrats picking up five in the House and losing one in the Senate in November. Thus whoever wins the White House is looking at close to the same congressional numbers as today.

In presidential race news, the president said he may accept his party’s nomination from the White House and Joe Biden will not be going to Milwaukee to accept his party’s nomination. Joe Biden called a reporter who asked about his mental acuity “a junkie,” thus proving the reporter’s point, and the president continued to warn against the dangers of mail-in voting, citing a NY U.S. House primary race where mail-in voting took place on June 24th and final results are still not in.

David Kamioner
meet the author

David Kamioner is a veteran of U.S. Army Intelligence and an honors graduate of the University of Maryland's European Division. He also served with the Pershing Nuclear Brigade and the First Infantry Division. Subsequent to that he worked for two decades as a political consultant, was part of the American Red Cross Hurricane Katrina disaster relief effort in Louisiana, ran a homeless shelter for veterans in Philadelphia, and taught as a college instructor. He serves as a Contributing Editor for LifeZette.

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