Many people over the past week have seen polls that show Joe Biden with a commanding lead over the president all over the country and also in several battleground states. They also show President Trump’s approval rating tanking.
President Donald Trump is trailing his Democratic rival Joe Biden by the widest margin this year, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday https://t.co/wZuDvOibqE
— POLITICO (@politico) June 18, 2020
Fox News poll shows majority disapprove of job Trump's doing as president https://t.co/TIqDvLtE9C
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 20, 2020
Other polls have shown that voters approve of the recent violent riots, arson, and looting. Still others display results that claim most Americans do not like the way the country is headed and believe that police officers are at fault for most of the issues in the news today. To be frank, these polls, considering the sources and the data imbedded deeply in the numbers themselves, are hogwash. Here’s why…
The sources: several of the polls come from The Associated Press. As anyone who has to look to them for story ideas on a daily basis can tell you, the AP is so anti-Trump as to be ridiculous. A typical AP headline usually is “Trump loathes children and puppies, Democrats propose wonderful ‘anti-hate’ legislation to combat his psychosis.” Other outlets who regularly conduct polling include NBC, home of journalists of such high integrity like Chuck Todd; Fox News, a media outlet that has been trending leftwards for a bit; and the Wall Street Journal, a paper that is still generally conservative but that hates Trump personally with a passion and a half.
What these press giants are trying to do, sometimes and sometimes not in direct coordination with the Biden campaign and the Democrats, is paint a picture that depresses the Trump vote and motivates those who do not support the president. They hope their slickly manipulated and staged polls will create fake momentum that will aid them in that mission. How do I know this? I used to be a pollster and my survey research antennae tell me these recent polls are too well-timed, too counter-intuitive, and too coordinated in message to be coincidental. Here’s why…
The numbers: yes, on the surface the recent polls, the ones that are not outright fabrications, do not look good for the president. Though put in perspective and gone over closely, the picture changes, not to great news for the president, but to a normal state of affairs for an incumbent in these trying times. Examples? A recent Fox News poll is a good place to start. That is the poll first referenced above that has Trump down against Biden all over the country. But look in the demographic cross tabs buried deep in the coverage and you will see the president has more than doubled his support with black voters and that data doesn’t fit the general press narrative. Hence why it is buried and not commented upon.
But hold on, other polls show a trend towards anti-police views and approval of such racist groups as Black Lives Matter. How can this president and parts of his conservative base, like police voters, be disdained by voters except for the very same voters one would think would disdain him the most, black voters, given the obvious conclusions of the other data? The black support number got out because Fox thought it would be overlooked in the general bad news. Also, look at the numbers for the last two presidents at this point in their reelection campaigns. Both George W. Bush and Barack Obama had numbers within five points of Trump’s current numbers, close to within a statistical margin of error, and went on to win in November. And, lest we forget, up until even the last day of the 2016 general election Hillary Clinton was supposed to win, in estimations by some of the very same media outlets noted here, by close to fifty points in the Electoral College. She lost by much more than fifty points.
These are just several of the reasons not to be too upset by recent polls. Though this campaign will be a tough slog, the president still has more than a fighting chance, regardless of what highly dubious polls by biased media outlets may claim.