Three recent polls put President Trump on target for a reelection win. But how voters see his handling on the virus crisis will be vital to the November decision.
Quinnipiac, Monmouth, and Fox News polls, all recent, have him statistically at 50%. From the Fox poll, “The president’s bump in approval isn’t huge, and certainly not on par with the rally effect for George W. Bush after 9/11,” says Republican analyst Daron Shaw, who produces the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But it could be consequential that he’s closing in on 50 percent, which is critical for his re-election chances.”
His Fox poll numbers are great with GOP voters at 89% approval. On the virus 51% of all voters approve of Trump’s performance. 57% think the nation is on the right course in fighting the virus.
The Democrats and Joe Biden will use the message that Trump waited too long in reacting to the virus. They may also use a feeling prevalent in some voters that the economic restrictions and stay in place regulations are lasting too long.
But they will face, if the economic recovery is viewed as strong, a big headwind. Voters will be so happy to get back to work and to return to their normal lives that they will be in a mood of upswing and confidence. To rain on that parade will be a Democrat struggle.
However, one slip up or more bad news could hurt the president’s chances. Democrats and the media will be lying in wait for that opportunity, like ghouls hoping for tragedy to gain from it.
As for Congress, the GOP has a good chance to hold the Senate and make gains in the House if they attack the Democrats as putting themselves and their special interests first during the pandemic.
Case in point? The Kennedy Center funding. Expect GOP attack media on that in the fall.