As many experts have suggested for weeks now, the models that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and media used to project death tolls for COVID-19 were wildly off.
Now, those earlier model numbers are being adjusted by the top guy at the CDC, Robert Redfield, who says the projected number of dead will be much lower than they thought.
What’s interesting here is that the CDC official is saying the reason the death tolls will be lower now is that Americans are taking “social distancing” to heart. Well, there’s no doubt that has helped. However, he’s not being completely candid here.
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Critics of the early “models” that were used to project death tolls will likely argue that those models actually used “complete and total social distancing” in their death equations and still projected 2.2 million dead in the U.S. at one point.
Later those same models that used “total and complete social distancing” were adjusted to show hundreds of thousands dying in the U.S. And to be fair, we all know there wasn’t a “complete and total social distancing.” One death from this wretched coronavirus is too much, and every single death that happens should be placed at the feet of China which is responsible for this mess.
One of the nation’s top public health officials suggested Monday that because Americans are taking social distancing recommendations “to heart,” the death toll from the novel coronavirus will be “much, much, much lower” than models have projected.
“If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that’s what you’re seeing,” said Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control.
“I think you’re going to see the numbers are, in fact, going to be much less than what would have been predicted by the models,” he said.
Redfield’s remarks on Monday to AM 1030 KVOI Radio in Tucson, Arizona, struck a rosier tone than some other recent predictions. On Monday morning, for example, the U.S. Surgeon General equated the coming week’s fallout to the attacks on Pearl Harbor.
But officials on the White House task force have said they believe that even with a tough week ahead, the numbers in some places suggest that social distancing is working and could provide a reprieve eventually. [MSN]
To his credit, President Trump is the one who delivered the ultimate “game-changer” when he brought up the anti-malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine. That is when real hope and change started taking place as patients began asking for the drug and doctors began treating them—successfully.
There’s a lesson to be learned here: while experts are great and we should always turn to them in times of crisis, it’s important to remember that they’re human and miscalculations can happen. Also, I think it’s important to be open to listening to many different expert opinions—that way one “voice” or projection doesn’t dominate the media and scare the hell out of everyone.
Yes, COVID-19 is a serious virus, but the panic, fear, and hysteria that engulfed everyone was equally as dangerous and will likely have an even longer-lasting impact on us as a country than the virus did. The good news is that in many spots, the U.S. death rates are dropping and people are leaving the hospitals much quicker. And while it’s far too early to spike the football, we can start to see a glimmer of light at the end of this long and dark tunnel.
This piece originally appeared in WayneDupree.com and is used by permission.
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