But that is nowhere near a certainty.
A Bernie nomination scenario would look like this: Biden does slightly better than Bernie does on Super Tuesday. However, Sanders is close to 600 delegates and getting close to unstoppable. Biden takes Florida and Illinois. Sanders takes New York.
It comes down to small late states, and Sanders and his hordes descend on them like locusts. Klobuchar, just out of the race today, will endorse Biden, as will Obama right before the Illinois primary. Bloomberg and Buttigieg will have endorsed Biden. Warren will endorse Sanders and is a good bet for his running mate. He may announce that early to gain female support.
But the endorsements for Biden creates a backlash with average Democrat voters who are not thrilled with the blatant machine setup of Bernie and, out of fairness, they start to swing towards the Vermonter.
All the while AOC and her coven have been threatening Democrats with primary challenges and all manner of trouble if they cross her or Sanders. That has an effect. In the weeks close to Milwaukee the pressure is on from all sides, but Sanders and AOC make it known that there will be public hell to pay on the convention floor in front of cameras, and perhaps even a walkout and third party bid if Bernie is denied. He wins on the first ballot by less than 100.
The Biden scenario: A lot of the same conflict until Illinois, where Biden wins very convincingly and that bolts him into top slot in New York. Now it’s the Biden juggernaut that Bernie is trying to stop, and he gets increasingly weirdly strident. Not wanting to be any part of his Howard Beale act, AOC pulls back. The media wants Biden, as they think he can beat Trump, and start to sound like Joe McCarthy on Bernie. The constant drubbing takes its toll and he still wins some late primaries, but it is not enough. Biden wins by 200-plus on the first ballot.
Then, the Super Bowl preseason starts.