Joe Biden has to finish in the top three in New Hampshire or he is done. That is the smart money Monday morning in DC.
The Biden people say that is hogwash and, even if does come in out of the money in New Hampshire, he will recover whatever mojo he has lost on Super Tuesday. They are banking on the south because to this point he has had strong support with black voters.
They have a point. As we wrote recently, because of their overwhelmingly ofay demeanors none of the others have hardly any appeal to African-American voters in southern Democratic primaries. Biden gets his creds with black voters from his association with the disgraced 44th president. But the transitive property will only take you so far.
If Biden bites it after New Hampshire there are several scenarios that could be in play:
- Buttigieg surges- Once Biden didn’t make the first round 15% cutoff in Iowa a lot of Biden voters went for Pete on the second round of caucusing.
Since Buttigieg is new to the scene he has had little time to tick off Biden. Thus Joe has no score to settle or grudge to pursue with him. Buttigieg will need the help to face Bloomberg on Super Tuesday.
- Klobuchar gains- What many Democrats like about Buttigieg is his left wing politics covered in temperate language. Same with Amy Klobuchar.
If former Biden people want a moderate sounding someone past puberty and Joe’s now politically homeless female voters are looking for a clueless but non-threatening preschool teacher type, Amy is their woman.
- The Hillary option- I don’t think this will happen but it may. She won’t completely close the door to it. It seems Buttigieg is from her wing of the party, establishment Wall Street hypocrites, and all of them may not take kindly to her entry into the race.
But this is Hillary Clinton and her insatiable thirst for power has not been slaked by a long shot. The worst part of that scenario? I lose a bottle of Woodford Reserve to conservative comedian Tim Slagle.
Stay with LifeZette Tuesday night for final New Hampshire Democratic primary results as soon as they are available.