While the president takes a hit on some issues in a Sunday Fox News poll, the most important issue finds him in fine shape.
55% give him positive marks on the economy, easily the most vital issue to voters right now. That’s the best poll number on the economy since 1991. The poll breaks down mostly on partisan lines. His job approval remains at 45%.
However the president is underwater, sometimes just barely, on guns, immigration, foreign policy, health care, government spending, race relations, and the environment. Again, very partisan breakdowns.
The worst mark is on the bellwether question of how things are going in the country, 56% are dissatisfied. That number can bite hard.
Now this is no death knell for the president. Numbers come and go and he is in overall good shape. But those who think a Trump landslide is guaranteed better think again.
Could he get one in the Electoral College? It’s possible. But the variables that have to be in place before that can be said with any degree of credibility are at least several months away.
But the same people who filled social media with idiotic and presumptuous “Red Tsunami” memes, when every legit sign pointed to the GOP losing the House, are now talking Trump walkover.
You say, but the polls were all wrong in November 2016 and thus they’re wrong now. Yup, the partisan polls were wrong. Hence my “legit” qualification above. There were honest brokers even in 2016 who said Trump had a real shot. Allan Lichtman was one. Helmut Norpoth another. Hell, even Michael Moore did. The South African polling firm Brandseye got it right after nailing Brexit earlier in the year.
In 2017 Lichtman also predicted eventual impeachment.
He’s not made a call for November yet. But given his rules of the road and methodology it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he predicted reelection. But landslide? Not likely.
Confirmation bias, basing your analysis on what you want-not on what the facts say, is a malady common to partisans of all stripes. We see it every day on the Democrat side of the Senate impeachment trial. It weakens and brings arrogant lethargy. It depresses vote totals by complacency.
Conservatives and Republicans should be smarter than that and work like we’re two points behind right up until election day. Or, we are at risk of another “Red Tsunami” scenario.