National Security

Prediction About Pro-Impeachment House Democrats: 12 or More Could Lose Their Seats

Thirty-one of these lawmakers represent districts that Donald Trump won in the November 2016 election — here's why at least a dozen are vulnerable

Image Credit: Courtesy, The White House

Two House Democrats — one of whom is flirting with switching to the Republican Party — are on the record as against the impeachment of President Donald Trump.

The rest of the 31 House Dems who represent districts that President Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election have either come out for impeachment or are thought to be leaning toward impeachment.

As of yet, there is not a single Republican in the House or Senate who has publicly backed impeachment and/or the removal from office of President Trump.

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So — an almost straight party-line process is in the cards.

The Dems can only lose 16 more members of their House caucus to lose the full House vote on impeachment. At this point, they easily have the votes to impeach on Thursday.

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This analyst believes they will lose four to eight votes at the maximum — and likely less than that.

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One of those impeachment-supporting Democrats from a district the president won by double digits — Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.) — commented in a statement, “A president coercing a foreign government into targeting American citizens is not just another example of scorched earth politics. It serves as an invitation to the enemies of the United States to come after any citizen, so long as they disagree with the president.”

Trump-district Dems such as Rose are no doubt reacting to party pressure.

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They may also be taking into account a new poll by Fox News that notes that 50 percent want the president impeached and removed from office.

Four percent want him only impeached.

Forty-one percent oppose impeachment and removal.

Impeachment itself has grown less popular in 2020 election battleground states, according to Fox News as well.

Related: These Five Dems Could Be Doomed if They Vote for Trump’s Impeachment

While impeachment looks all but certain in the House — the Senate looks all but certain to acquit the president.

As such, this is a fool’s errand for many Democrats.

Their electorates will hold them responsible for the ultimate political sin: losing.

Out of the 31 who will be in the GOP crosshairs in 2020, at least 10 of them will face a concerted effort and handpicked candidates by the National Republican Congressional Committee, the arm of the party that works to elect Republicans to the House.

Those Dems, such as Rep. Max Rose above, come from congressional districts the president won by 10 points or more in 2016 and where his support is still strong.

The NRCC-anointed candidates will receive funding support, tactical and strategic counsel, and vital data to make their campaigns better equipped to take on the Dem incumbents after the GOP primary.

Other GOP primary candidates may run against the unofficially chosen ones before the primary.

They will be offered perks, offices, and other inducements to get out of the way to avoid costly primary battles.

Current analysis by this writer — granted it is early still, and assuming a Trump victory next year  — predicts that at least 12 of the 31 will lose their seats.

David Kamioner
meet the author

David Kamioner is a veteran of U.S. Army Intelligence and an honors graduate of the University of Maryland's European Division. He also served with the Pershing Nuclear Brigade and the First Infantry Division. Subsequent to that he worked for two decades as a political consultant, was part of the American Red Cross Hurricane Katrina disaster relief effort in Louisiana, ran a homeless shelter for veterans in Philadelphia, and taught as a college instructor. He serves as a Contributing Editor for LifeZette.

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