House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) said on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” hosted by former top Clinton aide George Stephanopoulos, that the possibility of Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s (D-N.J.) defection to the GOP was because the Garden State Democrat was “reacting to public polling.”
“What he’s reacting to is public polling that shows he can’t get renominated,” said Nadler. “His [Van Drew’s] electorate in his district is 24 percent to renominate him and 60 percent to nominate somebody else.”
No doubt Van Drew’s refusal to support the impeachment of a president of the United States over non-existent evidence has cost him politically with the far-Left in his swing district — a district that President Donald Trump won in 2016 by a margin of 4.6 points.
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Nadler says that lack of support could cost Van Drew renomination.
But it is blatant spin because Nadler can do the political math.
That math says with impeachment tanking in the polls, and removal from office worse so, GOP votes combined with moderate Dems in a swing district is a winning formula, as it isolates the hard-Left in an ideological corner comprised of, at max, 40 percent of the voters in the district.
Nadler may have mentioned the 24 percent vs. 60 percent against Van Drew — but the actual numbers from the leaked Democrat internal poll that Nadler referenced, as reported by Fox News, called it 28 percent to 58 against renomination.
That Dem 28 percent — combined with the GOP numbers in this swing district — could garner Van Drew 55-60 percent.
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That is a number any objective analyst would call a big win, if not a landslide.
That doesn’t even count the 14 percent who are undecided — some of whom would likely vote for Van Drew.
And that’s just what Van Drew may be contemplating after his Friday meeting with President Donald Trump.
Here is the president’s view of the situation — see his tweet.
Wow, that would be big. Always heard Jeff is very smart! https://t.co/7yDPU4N3wd
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 15, 2019
So it is Nadler, not Van Drew, who is looking at poll numbers and trying to rationalize the public relations headache the Democrats will have to contend with — when a swing district member of their own caucus leaves them in the middle of an intense impeachment fight against a political enemy.
As for Van Drew, with almost 60 percent against his renomination inside his current party, he seems to have burned his bridges.
He’ll probably pick an advantageous time in the news cycle — a move one presumes he’ll coordinate with the White House — to announce his party jump.
There are other swing-district and first-term Dems who may be contemplating the same maneuver, or at least seeing it as a viable option if they vote against impeachment to save their swing seats for the Dems.
If they did, they know the national and local Left would ravage them for their political courage and logic.
This would make the on-the-upswing GOP seem that much more attractive to lawmakers beleaguered by the Left.
As such, Van Drew may be the first to abandon a sinking boat.
But he may not be the last to leave the plummeting ship of the impeachment hoax.