Black and Hispanic voters give Democrats solid majorities.
But in poll after poll, these groups come down squarely as social conservatives on issues like abortion, education, same-sex marriage, and other matters.
Combine that with their robust employment numbers in this Trump economy — and if the Trump 2020 re-election campaign were to harness those views into votes, it could prove a disaster for Democrats in key battleground states next year.
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Likely because of the strong influence the Christian faith plays in those communities, black and Hispanic voters have been ideological outliers in the national Democrat scene for some time.
Also, Hispanics are not politically monolithic.
Voters of Cuban and South American heritage tend to vote Republican. Those of Mexican and Puerto Rican ancestry are solidly Democrat. But even within their strong support for the Democratic Party, there is a social rebellion brewing.
Hence the president’s stronger than usual GOP polling numbers in those groups, according to Rasmussen Reports and others.
At least since the 1960s, the GOP has given scant attention to the black vote and moderate attention to Dem-supporting Hispanics.
Classic political strategy divides voting districts into “go” areas, “fightable” areas, and “no-go” areas. Black urban neighborhoods have been consistently relegated to a “no-go” status.
Aside from Texas, where the GOP pays detailed attention to all Hispanic voters, many Hispanic big-city areas, almost always run by Dems, have suffered the same fate.
But as in so much else, President Donald Trump has upended the political logic.
His brash style and take-no-prisoners demeanor appeals to many minority voters, especially male voters.
And there is no stronger endorsement than being thought responsible, directly or indirectly, for a thriving economy and the resulting paychecks.
If in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico the president were to increase his margins there by 15 percentage points with minority voters, he could solidify close states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.
With that number, he could make the remaining states above competitive if not win them outright.
By merely making those races close, he makes the Dems redeploy money and resources they had planned to expend in states they hope to flip.
A GOP pipe dream?
In several polls, and for months, the president has been scoring in the mid-30 percentiles with blacks and about 5 points higher with Hispanics.
He took less than 10 percent of the black vote in 2016 and slightly less than 30 percent of the Hispanic vote, according to CNN exit poll numbers. And given the source, those numbers could be low.
If the president stays on track in the 30s with black voters and sees a similar uptick with Hispanics, it would more than beat the 15 percent he would need to put Virginia and New Mexico in the GOP column.
If the GOP had no significant losses anywhere else from its 2016 numbers and this scenario came to pass, the Dems would have no mathematical path to reach 270 electoral votes and the presidency.
So, is this scenario probable?
Is it increasingly possible?
That should make for depressing holiday news for Dems no matter what they vote to do in the House over impeachment — or anything else.