Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is now poised — if not to win the 2020 Democrat nomination for the presidency — then to be the deciding factor at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July 2020.
His base of upscale college students and — well, upscale college students — now has garnered him a solid 20 percent in national Dem polls.
That’s not always leading, but it is always in the top tier.
He could easily be second in Iowa and first in New Hampshire, which neighbors Vermont.
With that momentum behind him, he could hold his own in the South and clean up in convention delegate-rich and far-Left states such as Illinois, New York, and California.
That very possible scenario sends him to the convention in at least a kingmaker’s position.
Sanders’ base — the kind of grouping that led 1972 Dem nominee Sen. George McGovern (D-S.D.) to one of the biggest electoral defeats in American history — is ideologically passionate and deeply committed to their candidate.
They watched as the Dem primaries were rigged against him by the DNC and Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election cycle. And they will not be denied their just due again.
They’re the ruthlessly socialist heart of the modern Democratic Party and could support Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
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The metaphorical brains of the party are the Dem pros, donors, and old guard who would back an Establishment candidate like former Vice President Joe Biden or billionaire Michael Bloomberg. They know that Sanders and Warren are far too left-wing to win and that President Donald Trump, no matter what other travails he has to deal with, would beat them handily.
But at a politically volatile convention, there is a group psychosis and mass-conditioning environment that, in a closely contested race, permits almost anything to happen. Hence why it it could be amazing political theater.
So who wins in the end if there is no clear leader going in?
If Sanders holds around 20 percent and other top-tier contenders such as Biden and Warren take another 20 percent each (a realistic possibility), can anyone get to an over 50 percent victory on the first convention ballot?
The trade union movement is workers' last line of defense against the greed of the billionaire class. And that is why we are going to double union membership in this country. Join us live in Concord, NH: https://t.co/iRWUAH8Rv6
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) December 27, 2019
That doesn’t even factor in the political staying power of Bloomberg’s fortune.
He could also be up there in the first tier.
In a pressurized convention divided between heart and mind, would the Dem heart win out in a third-ballot, adrenaline-fueled, liberal rush to the hard Left? Could Sanders then win the nomination?
Or could he demand Warren’s nomination as the price for his support?
Yes, he could. Would he? Perhaps — but the shot is definitely there.
And who is the biggest winner in this plot line?
That would be the person who usually wins when it comes to the results of Dem political maneuvering: President Donald Trump.
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