Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) had a lot to consider, such as a midterm election back home Friday, when he stood alone against his party in support of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court.
Kavanaugh (pictured above) has faced a historically contentious confirmation process since being nominated July 9. The process reached a climax Friday when senators advanced his nomination to 30 hours of debate, making a final vote all but certain Saturday.
Manchin voted “yes” on the debate issue Friday and then announced, shortly after a stirring floor speech by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), that he will also vote to confirm Kavanaugh Saturday. Barring something totally out of left field, the Collins and Manchin decisions all but ensure Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
“From the start of this process, I promised my constituents that I would look seriously at Judge Kavanaugh’s record and cast my vote based on the facts I have before me and what is best for West Virginia,” Manchin said in a statement.
“I have found Judge Kavanaugh to be a qualified jurist who will follow the Constitution and determine cases based on the legal findings before him,” Manchin said.
Manchin is currently in a heated re-election campaign against West Virginia’s Republican attorney general, Patrick Morrisey. Manchin leads Morrisey by nearly 10 points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average.
West Virginia was for decades a solidly Democratic state, but it has trended strongly Republican in recent years, culminating in 2016 when voters gave Trump a 42-point advantage over Democrat Hillary Clinton, his biggest-winning margin in any state.
Backing Trump’s Supreme Court nominees is important to West Virginians, according to multiple surveys.
Research America Inc. published a poll early last month that showed residents of the state support the nomination. The poll found that 62 percent of likely voters in the state said they wanted Manchin to vote to confirm Kavanaugh, while 38 percent said they wanted him to reject the nomination.
“It has become a deep red state since the early 2000s. The legislature turned Republican in 2014. And Joe Manchin’s support for Kavanaugh is really important.”
“The questions we asked in late August and early September were about the ballot issue and how important is it to you that Manchin support Brett Kavanaugh for the court,” Research America Inc. President Rex Repass told LifeZette.
“It has become a deep red state since the early 2000s. The legislature turned Republican in 2014. And Joe Manchin’s support for Kavanaugh is really important,” Repass said.
Repass is well versed in West Virginia politics, having done polling there for the last three decades. He is also a native of Charleston and graduated from Marshall University in Huntington in 1976. The MetroNews Dominion Post West Virginia Poll commissioned the survey.
Kavanaugh himself is also well-regarded in West Virginia. Public Opinion Strategies (POR) found in a survey September 27 that 58 percent supported the confirmation of Kavanaugh, while 28 percent did not. The Judicial Crisis Network commissioned the POR poll and has spent millions of dollars in advocacy efforts to support the nomination.
“Manchin has shown his willingness to work with the president throughout his campaign. He has agreed that the country needs to build a border wall on the southern border with Mexico.
Manchin has shown his willingness to work with the president throughout his campaign. He has agreed that the country needs to build a border wall on the southern border with Mexico.
Manchin has also said he wants to work with the president to find balance on tax reform and praised the president for his approach on gun control. Politico declared earlier this year that Manchin has gone “full MAGA.”
Morrisey has plenty of conservative credentials of his own as a two-time attorney general for West Virginia. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund endorsed him September 10.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was able to limit debate to just over a day by invoking a parliamentary move known as a cloture vote Wednesday. It was approved mostly along party lines Friday morning, at 51 to 49, with a couple of exceptions, including Manchin. The breakdown may indicate how the final vote could go this weekend.
Related: Trump Revels in West Virginia Support, Sees Red Wave Coming
Manchin said while announcing his support that he does have reservations about his vote given the serious accusations and the temperament Kavanaugh displayed during a hearing on the sexual assault claims September 27.
He added that his heart goes out to anyone who has experienced sexual assault but decided to approve of him, given the information available.
In the end, Manchin’s decision to support Kavanaugh may be no more complicated to explain than the political calculation indicated by a statewide survey released in July.
“A Trafalgar Group survey out Thursday puts Manchin at a whopping 29-point advantage over his Republican competitor, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey — if he chooses to vote for Kavanaugh,” RealClearPolitics reported July 19. “Conversely, a vote against the nominee puts Manchin at a mere 2-point lead — a statistical dead heat that falls within the poll’s margin of error.”
Whether the Trafalgar projection stands up will become evident one way or the other November 6 when West Virginians head to the polls and choose between their former Democratic governor and their present Republican attorney general to be their senator.
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