Democratic candidates across the country are trying to turn their races into referendums on President Donald Trump, but then there is West Virginia, which the chief executive carried by more than 40 points in 2016.

Republican Patrick Morrisey would like nothing better than to have his race against incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (picture above right) be a vote for or against the president. Morrisey’s TV spots make that clear every day.

“West Virginians want a conservative fighter who’s going to advance the Trump agenda,” Morrisey told LifeZette. “And I think that this president has been doing very positive things for West Virginia and this country.”

Morrisey (pictured above left), the state’s attorney general, said those achievements include appointing rule-of-law judges, slashing regulations, and cutting taxes. He said he will beat “dishonest Washington liberal Joe Manchin” if voters learn about the senator’s true record. He hit the incumbent for opposing last year’s tax cut bill and not supporting Trump’s efforts to build a border wall.

“For someone who claims to have bipartisan street cred, he’s done nothing to try to address or make progress on the immigration front,” he said. “That would be very helpful to us in our efforts to make further progress in the fight on drugs.”

The Mountain State matchup is one of a handful of races that will determine whether Democrats wrest control of the upper chamber from Republicans — and with it, the ability to control the confirmation of federal judges and important executive branch appointments.

Public polls have shown Manchin comfortably ahead, although Morrisey insists the race is actually a dead heat. National Republicans are bringing in the big guns. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) swung through the state on Thursday. Vice President Mike Pence campaigned with Morrisey on Saturday, and Trump’s son — Donald Trump Jr. — will appear at a rally Monday.

Manchin has star power of his own. University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban and former NBA great Jerry West both have endorsed him. The race will test Manchin’s ability to survive in a state that has undergone a dramatic political transformation over the past two decades.

Manchin Faces Changing West Virginia
Once one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, bolstered by strong mine worker union membership, West Virginia broke hard with the party in 2000. That year, the state backed Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush. Even without Florida, Democrat Al Gore would have won the election if he had managed to win West Virginia.

Gradually, Republicans started winning state and local offices, too, and in 2014 took control of the state legislature. By 2016, Republicans were firmly in control of the state. Trump won every county, and a year later, Democratic Gov. Jim Justice switched parties.

“He’s right in the middle. He’s literally a zero — right in the middle.”

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Political experts point to the national Democratic party’s embrace of environmentalism for driving a wedge between it and coal-dependent West Virginia.

Manchin, who has resisted pressure to change parties, has become an island. Political observers say he has managed to remain popular by bucking his party on energy and stressing social conservatism while supporting traditionally Democratic economic populism and painting himself as a moderate who can work with leaders of both parties. He has championed defense of legal protections for people with pre-existing health conditions.

C. Damien Arthur, a professor at Marshall University, pointed to a political science tool called DW-Nominate, which tracks congressional votes and assigns scores on a scale of negative-1 to positive-one to measure the ideology of lawmakers.

“He’s right in the middle,” he said. “He’s literally a zero — right in the middle.”

Although the state has changed, Arthur said, there are vestiges of the once-dominate Democratic Party. Registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans by 9.5 points. Many of those Democrats now are voting Republican at the presidential level but have shown a willingness to split their tickets.

Arthur pointed to the open seat race in the 3rd Congressional District, where Democrat Richard Ojeda has run a surprisingly strong campaign against Republican Carol Miller in a district that Trump won by almost 50 points.

“We are a unique state,” Arthur said.

Can Kavanaugh Vote Save Manchin?
Manchin burnished his bipartisan credentials as the only Democrat to vote in favor of confirming Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh — despite sexual assault allegations that has been leveled against him dating to his teenage years.

The vote enraged the Left but aligned Manchin with his constituents, a majority of whom favored confirmation, according to polls.

But Morrisey and his allies have argued that the vote was a meaningless gesture, pointing out that the senator literally waited just outside the chamber to make sure Kavanaugh had enough Republican votes to ensure confirmation so that he would not be the deciding vote.

“Senator Manchin had an opportunity to be a difference-maker, but he failed miserably, because he waited until the outcome of the Kavanaugh nomination was decided before he stepped in and made a decision.”

“Senator Manchin had an opportunity to be a difference-maker, but he failed miserably, because he waited until the outcome of the Kavanaugh nomination was decided before he stepped in and made a decision,” Morrisey said.

“That’s outrageous, because he could have avoided the whole obstruct-and-resist circus that we saw. He could have avoided the pain in Judge Kavanaugh’s family,” Morrisey added.

Conrad Lucas, a former state Republican Party chairman who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for a seat in the House of Representatives this year, predicted Manchin’s vote will not save him.

“Joe Manchin was just playing politics … Manchin completely fumbled it,” he said.

Lucas, who has remained active in Republican politics, said Morrisey has momentum on the eve of early voting, which starts Wednesday.

“Morrisey is exactly where he needs to be … Patrick Morrisey always closes strong,” he told LifeZette.

Gary Kelley, the Republican Party chairman of Berkeley County in the Eastern Panhandle bordering Maryland, told LifeZette that Manchin will be no pushover. He noted that Manchin has won five statewide elections and has a pedigree that includes a father and grandfather who served as mayor of Farmington and an uncle who won election as treasurer and secretary of state.

Related: Why Manchin Stands Alone Among Dems for Kavanaugh

“Manchin has a name from his family,” Kelley said. “That’s hard to overcome.”

But Kelley said enthusiasm among Republicans is high. He predicted that Monday’s event in his county featuring Trump Jr. and former Fox News personality Kimberly Guilfoyle will draw an overflow crowd.

Kelley said Republicans have to demonstrate to voters who the real Joe Manchin is.

“Election time, he always wants to be moderate,” he said. “Between elections, he does his thing. He’s a very good politician. He’ll tell you what you want to hear.”

(photo credit, homepage and article images: Patrick Morrisey, CC BY-SA 2.0, Cutout/Collage/Cropped, by Gage Skidmore)