With Republican Troy Balderson’s apparent victory in a hard-fought special election in the Buckeye State’s 12th Congressional District close to being official, Democrats are placing the House of Representatives seat in central Ohio near the top of their list of targets in November.

History suggests it is a long shot, however.

Balderson (pictured above right) clings to a 1,754-vote lead. Ohio elections officials are expected to certify the August 7 special election results by August 24. After that, there still could be a recount.

Regardless of how that turns out, however, the same two candidates will square off again in less than three months. Balderson and Democrat Danny O’Connor (pictured above left) are their parties’ nominees for the November midterm election.

The record of special election losers challenging newly minted incumbents is poor, according to analysis by University of Minnesota political science researcher Eric Ostermeier. His research indicates there have been 173 special elections for the House between regular elections from 1968 to 2016.

In 41 of those races, the winner and loser met in a rematch. In just six of those contests, or 14.6 percent, did the losing candidate come back to win in the next regular election.

“Only two of the last 29 have been successful, and one of those was the product of … an usual jungle primary in Hawaii,” said Ostermeier, founder of the website Smart Politics.

In that race, Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou won a plurality of the vote when two Democrats split the vote in May of 2010. Despite a Republican wave that swept the country that November, however, Democrat Colleen Hanabusa bounced him from office in deep-blue Hawaii.

The other race occurred in the early 1990s. Republican Mark Neumann lost to Democrat Peter Barca a special election in May 1993 in Wisconsin’s 1st District by 0.6 of a percentage point, only to come back and defeat him in November 1994 by 0.7 percent. He served until unsuccessfully running for the Senate in 1998.

Not all special elections are the same, of course. Often, they occur in districts where one party or the other has an overwhelming advantage. The special election winners in these places almost alway win their rematches.

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But 22 of the 41 rematches over the past half-century took place after the incumbent had won special elections by single digits.

“And still, only six flipped,” Ostermeier said.

And, actually, only five of those close districts flipped. The sixth comeback occurred after the general election winner had lost the special election by double digits.

Ostermeier said it is not clear why special election winners have such a strong record in rematches.

By the time the regular election takes place, they have some experience in office, but Ostermeier added, “You’d have to think the power of incumbency is not as fully entrenched.”

Perhaps those short-time incumbents benefit from not having to worry about primary challenges, Ostermeier said. That is not always the case for losers. Incumbents might have an easier time raising money as well, he added.

The Democrats have reason for optimism about the 12th District, which curves around Columbus, stretching from the suburbs of the state capital to more rural counties to the north and southeast. O’Connor came within a percentage point in a district that has been reliably Republican and has raised a lot of money.

“It’s not rare to have a rematch, but there’s more of these than usual.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) this week included the race in its “Red to Blue” campaign, which seeks to win Republican-held seats.

“Danny didn’t just talk the talk, he literally walked the walk, knocking on doors and speaking to voters in every corner of his diverse district about the issues that matter in their lives every day,” DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Lujan told The Plain Dealer in Cleveland.

“With votes still being counted in the special election, we know that Danny isn’t done yet, and he is ready to win in November,” Lujan said.

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November likely will produce the highest number of rematches from special elections in 50 years. In addition to the Ohio race, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) will face Democrat Archie Parnell after beating him last year; Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kan.) will face Democrat James Thompson again; and Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas) will oppose Democrat Eric Holquin once more. If Hiral Tipirneni wins the Democratic primary to face Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) again, that would make a total of five rematches.

“It’s not rare to have a rematch, but there’s more of these than usual,” Ostermeier said.

Republicans will be favored in all of those contests, Ostermeier said.