Winning Without the Popular Vote

Days before the 2000 election, pollster John Zogby told the Los Angeles Times, “Where Bush leads he leads big, where Gore leads he leads small.” This fueled speculation that George W. Bush would win the popular vote but Al Gore would nonetheless be elected president. Two Columbia University professors released a study predicting that if Bush beat Gore by less than 2.2 points, he would probably lose the Electoral College.

Of course, it turned out the opposite, with Gore winning about 500,000 more votes than Bush nationally but losing the election.

“Trump’s edge among white, non-college educated voters could make him more likely to pull a popular vote win off, doing well in parts of Ohio, western Pennsylvania, Iowa and Nevada.”

For months, as Donald Trump narrowed the gap or led Hillary Clinton in national polls, the Electoral College map still seemed almost insurmountable. But recent polls show Trump winning the battleground states of Ohio, Florida, and others, and some show him leading in the popular vote nationally. If all that holds, he could still fall short in Pennsylvania or other states and lose the election.

Only four times in American history has the popular and electoral vote split. If 2016 is the fifth time, it could happen for either candidate.

Though, if it happens, Trump being the popular one still seems the most plausible outcome. That’s largely because the enthusiasm gap alone could mean more of his supporters will turn out, even in states he has no chance of carrying. He is a different type of Republican — one that could run up the numbers in blue states that Bush, John McCain or Mitt Romney never could. To be sure, Trump isn’t likely to come close to carrying New York and California. But he can turn out a lot of supporters in those states to add to his national vote total.

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I asked Dick Morris, author of “Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary,” about the likelihood of seeing such a split. “Not much,” he answered.

“The race would have to be within 1 point and I don’t see it that close,” Morris continued. “Either people will come to a consensus that Trump is beyond the pale or not. They already believe Hillary is corrupt. If Trump can establish his basic qualifications, he should be able to win by enough.”

Morris is most likely correct, and after the debates, most voters’ assessment will be solidified one way or another. But, if things don’t move from where they are now, the race is within 1 point in several polls. That might send us on the trajectory.

How Trump Could Win and Still Lose
New Jersey doesn’t get a lot of attention, nor a lot of polling. But in June, Trump trailed Clinton by 21 points. In a September poll, he was within 4 points. Doing well in the Garden State would almost certainly be a barometer of other Northeastern states. Hillary would take all of New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes whether she wins the state by 1 point or 20.

New Hampshire has usually been the only competitive state in New England for Republicans. However, Trump isn’t running poorly in Connecticut and Maine, and is very competitive in Rhode Island. Again, running well in blue states is enough to drive up national vote totals.

He’s also trailing only 3 and 6 points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, traditional Democratic states in presidential elections. He will solidly win Southern and other red Western states, thus clinching the popular vote. Virginia is a toss-up now, but Tim Kaine could make the margin for a Hillary victory. The tight margins in battleground states would still kick the Electoral College to Hillary.

Trump could win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, run close in these other states — and still lose the election but potentially top Clinton in the popular vote.

“Trump’s edge among white, non-college educated voters could make him more likely to pull a popular vote win off, doing well in parts of Ohio, western Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Nevada,” said Geoffrey Skelley, analyst for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

How Hillary Could Win and Still Lose
Skelley added that Clinton could also drive up her national vote total in the Deep South, where there is a significant African-American population. Still, she would have no chance of winning those states.

The only two solid red states that seem to be up for grabs are Arizona and Georgia. But the safe money is on Trump winning both, for a combined 27 electoral votes. Still, based on current polls, Hillary could drive up her national vote total there.

Just as Trump could draw significant votes out of blue New York, Hillary could draw votes out of Texas, which has one of the largest Hispanic populations in the country. If this demographic turns out for the Democrats, it would contribute to her national numbers. Even if she does extraordinarily well beyond expectations, Texas is 38 electoral votes — whether Trump wins by a landslide or by a slim margin. Also, Trump could pick up a single electoral vote from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, even as he’ll probably lose the state.

The Precedents
The first two elections that ended in a split had very unusual circumstances.

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In 1824, popular voting was new ahead of the “corrupt bargain” where John Quincy Adams beat Andrew Jackson after the election was thrown to the House of Representatives.

Democrats stole the 1876 election through voter suppression in the South and Republicans essentially stole it back through an electoral commission and a deal to end Reconstruction.

Both 1888 and 2000 were just super close with a popular vote divide of less than 1 percent.

In three out of these four contests, the Republican candidate was victorious despite getting fewer votes. But the electoral map is very different today and strongly favors Democrats. The only big state Republicans can still rely on is Texas.

But it was conventional wisdom that Clinton had the overwhelming advantage on both counts until just the past two weeks, when Trump surged to lead in both Florida and Ohio. Trump’s momentum doesn’t appear to be slowing and it’s difficult to see where her momentum would pick up.