Politics

Trump Nearly Doubles His Shot at Victory

FiveThirtyEight predictor ups GOP nominee's prospects to near 40 percent

Since the beginning of August, Donald Trump has nearly doubled his chances of winning the 2016 presidential election, according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast. The forecaster now says there is a 38.3 percent likelihood of a Trump presidency, up from a 20.5-percent low on Aug. 8.

Polls released Wednesday show Donald Trump has pulled ahead of his Democratic rival in the critical swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Nevada.

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In a head-to-head matchup in Ohio, the billionaire businessman has a 5-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, according to a new Bloomberg Politics poll that surveyed more than 1,100 voters from Sept. 9 through Sept. 12. The Republican nominee held his lead when the third-party candidates were added to the equation, leading Clinton 44 percent to 39 percent.

A CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday also showed Trump ahead of Clinton by 5 percentage points in the Buckeye State. Trump earned 46 percent of support, Clinton had 41 percent, Gary Johnson had 8 percent support, and Jill Stein had 2 percent. The poll surveyed nearly 800 likely voters from Sept. 7 through Sept. 14.

The poll comes on the heels of some of the worst moments of Clinton’s campaign to date. Americans on both sides of the political aisle raised questions and concerns after seeing footage of the Democratic nominee collapse from a previously undisclosed illness at a 9/11 memorial service Sunday. Clinton also triggered outrage after saying “half” of all Trump supporters belonged in a “basket of deplorables” at a fundraiser Friday.

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Trump is also ahead of Clinton in the battleground state of Florida, according to a CNN/ORC poll that surveyed nearly 800 likely voters from Sept. 7 through Sept. 12. In a four-way matchup, Trump had 47 percent of support compared to Clinton’s 44 percent, though Trump’s 3-point advantage falls within the 3.5 percent margin of error.

In a three-way matchup in Nevada between Trump, Clinton, and Johnson, Clinton is 2 points behind Trump, 42 percent to 44 percent, according to a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday. The poll surveyed more than 400 likely voters in the Silver State from Sept. 11 through Sept. 13. Though the poll fell within the margin of error, this marks a shift from earlier polls showing Clinton with a healthy lead.

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