Politics

New York Moment for Trump, Clinton

Both front-runners stomp to victory in Big Apple

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump needed a decisive win on their home turf in New York on Tuesday night, and the Empire State delivered.

For Clinton, the win in New York gives her much-needed momentum after a string of eight losses to Sanders. Trump needed a big win in New York to put more delegates in his column in order to prevent a contested convention after Cruz siphoned delegates from him over the last three weekends.

Trump was expected to win his home state by double digits and he did — trouncing his rivals on his home turf with 60 percent of the vote. Trump took a lion’s share of the 95 delegates at stake, with 89 to Gov. John Kasich’s three as of Wednesday morning — completely silencing Sen. Ted Cruz.

“We’re close to 70 percent and we’re going to end at a high level and we’re going to get more delegates than anyone projected in their wildest imaginations,” a victorious Trump said from Trump Tower. “This has been an incredible evening, it’s been an incredible day and week.” Trump took a chance to fire a shot at his rival Cruz. “Senator Cruz is just about mathematically eliminated and we’ve won another state and as you know we have won millions of more votes than Senator Cruz,” Trump said.

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Trump also hit the Republican Party and the system, calling it “rigged.” “Nobody should take delegates and claim victory unless they get those delegates with voters and voting and that’s what’s going to happen … Nobody can take an election away, the way they are doing it in the Republican Party,” Trump said.

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While Clinton won New York, Sen. Bernie Sanders gave her a run for her money. Over the course of a month the Democratic underdog narrowed a 33 point deficit to within 15 points — an impressive feat against the Clinton machine. He was also able to take a large portion of the 247 delegates away from her; Clinton took 135 delegates to Sanders 104 as of Wednesday night.

Clinton spent close to two weeks campaigning in the Empire State — a state where she served as senator for eight years and owns a home. Clearly Clinton felt the pressure from Sanders, which forced her to dedicate a significant amount of time and resources to winning New York, hoping to draw a competitive primary to a close.

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“To those who supported Senator Sanders, I believe there is more that unites rather than divides us,” a triumphant Clinton said. “I want to say to all of my supporters and all of the voters, you have carried us every step of the way with passion and determination that some critics have tried to dismiss.”

Clinton made sure to bring the heat to the Republican candidates in a pivot toward the general election. “It’s becoming clearer that this may be one of the most consequential elections of our lifetimes; Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are pushing a vision for America that is divisive and frankly dangerous,” Clinton said. “Instead of building walls we are going to break down barriers.”

Exit Polling
According to CNN exit polling among New York Republican voters, only one in five identified as very conservative, standing in contrast with the average of 35 percent from all other states with nominating contests. Additionally, Fox News exit polling showed that 64 percent of GOP voters wanted a candidate outside of the Establishment, opposed to just 32 percent who wanted a candidate with political experience.

When GOP voters were asked which candidate they wouldn’t support if he became the Party’s nominee, 41 percent said Cruz, 30 percent said Kasich, and 26 percent said Trump.

What’s more, Fox News exit polling shows that 57 percent of GOP voters said that the Republican primary so far has divided the party while only 39 percent said it energized the party.

Interestingly, Fox News exit polling among Democratic voters showed that almost two-thirds felt that Wall Street does more to hurt the economy than to help it — 64 percent to 29 percent — a message that Sanders has touted on the campaign trail. Among young Democratic voters, 69 percent supported Sanders while an abysmal 31 percent supported Clinton — a problem demographic for her campaign. There was one good sign for Clinton though: 57 percent of Democratic voters in New York believe she is honest and trustworthy.

What’s Next for the Republicans?
Simple answer, the path ahead is not clear when it comes to whether or not Trump can get the required 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination. What is clear is that Kasich and Cruz cannot get to the 1,237 without going to a contested convention and winning on a multiple ballot vote.

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After Tuesday night the candidates will go on to primaries in the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island on April 26. As it stands Trump has a large lead in Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Clinton also enjoys a comfortable lead in Maryland and Pennsylvania, but it is close in Connecticut. There is no polling for Delaware and only one poll conducted in February for Rhode Island.

However, the state of Pennsylvania has 71 delegates at stake for Republicans — but 54 are unbound and elected by voters, meaning that we could see many Cruz supporters elected as delegates since he continues to implement a strong ground game. If Trump were to win Pennsylvania he would only be guaranteed 17 at-large-delegates, who are bound to Pennsylvania’s primary winner on the first ballot.

[lz_table title=”Remaining GOP Primaries” source=”gop.com”]Connecticut
Delegates,28
|Delaware
Delegates,16
|Maryland
Delegates,38
|Pennsylvania
Delegates,71
|Rhode Island
Delegates,19
|Indiana
Delegates,57
|Nebraska
Delegates,36
|West Virginia
Delegates,34
|Oregon
Delegates,28
|Washington
Delegates, 44
|California
Delegates,172
|Montana
Delegates,27
|New Jersey
Delegates,51
|New Mexico
Delegates,24
|South Dakota
Delegates,29
[/lz_table]

Prior to the New York primary, Trump had 756 delegates. If he were to go on to win in Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Pennsylvania (most likely gets 17), Oregon, West Virginia, New Jersey, and California (unlikely he gets all) he would have 1,213 delegates — assuming he wins all the delegates in those states. Now if we assume Trump wins Pennsylvania but his supporters aren’t elected as delegates, then he would only get 17 rather than 71 delegates — so let’s deduct 54 and his number is still 1,159. Finally, let’s add his delegate prize from his New York win and he is at 1,249 — surpassing the required number needed for the nomination.

The 1,237 won’t come before June 7 though, when the states of California and New Jersey will hold their contests, which will be big delegate pickups. If Trump doesn’t sweep all the delegates in those states it puts a dent in his chances to reach the goal line.

However, Cruz is favored to do well in Nebraska, Washington, South Dakota, Indiana, and Montana. Let’s say he wins decisively in each of those contests, which would give him an additional 193 delegates equaling 752 — well short of Trump and short of the 1,237.

This leaves out the state of New Mexico, where in total 24 delegates are up for grabs — since it’s possible both candidates could walk away with 12 delegates a piece.

What’s Next for Democrats?
The Democratic candidates will also continue on to primaries in the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island on April 26. Clinton enjoys a comfortable lead in Maryland and Pennsylvania, but it is close in Connecticut. Just as with the Republicans, there is no polling for Delaware and only one poll conducted in February for Rhode Island.

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Clinton’s victory in New York allows her to put Sanders in her rearview mirror as her campaign will press on full steam ahead toward the general election. But Sanders isn’t going anywhere. Sanders was able to take a significant amount of delegates away from Clinton in the Empire State, keeping him viable — for now.

Going forward, Sanders needs to work on corralling the support of superdelegates — where Clinton has an upper hand in the race.

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