The Veep Debate That Matters

It’s almost the first week of October.

A large number of undecided voters will soon start deciding how to vote in the presidential race. And polls right now give a slight edge to Hillary Clinton, with Donald Trump solidly within striking distance.

In a 2012 debate, Pence was told he couldn’t respond but could use his time in the next round. “I believe I will,” he said to chuckles.

But nominees have struggled to overcome deep-seated negative perceptions among the American people. Their running mates have largely done their jobs well, staying out of the headlines since the parties held their conventions.

But on Oct. 4, those vice presidential nominees will go head to head, and with a large number of undecideds still on the fence about the names at the top of the ticket, the clash could prove consequential.

The debate between vice presidential candidates, only the 10th in U.S. history, will be held on Tuesday at Longwood University in Virginia. The debate will likely be seen as crucial in giving steam to the Trump campaign, which has taken large hits from Democrats and a hostile media since Monday’s debate.

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So it will be Indiana Gov. Mike Pence’s job to defend Trump and return the spotlight to Hillary Clinton’s many negatives.

And on Tuesday, he can expect a game like something he has never seen before. Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Kaine is the current U.S. senator from Virginia, and the state’s former governor. He is also the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Thus, he is experienced at the kind of hardball that Pence doesn’t like to play. Pence once swore off negative campaigning. Now he must face a Clinton ally after Clinton herself made clear at Monday’s debate that she will stoop as low as she can get.

Still, Pence and Kaine are unlikely to stray too much from a conventional game plan. According to experts on communication and the vice presidency, that’s to echo the ticket leader’s agenda, advocate for the presidential nominee, and attack the other presidential nominee.

“[Kaine] will be something of a character witness for Clinton,” said John F. Carroll, a professor of mass communication at Boston University. “His second objective will be to highlight Donald Trump’s deficiencies.”

For Pence, this will be his first time in an arena that is more like a gladiator fight — rather than the civil contests he has managed to sail through in his past. On Oct. 17, 2012, Pence met his opponents in his first statewide race, for governor.

Pence had served in the U.S. House of Representatives for 12 years, and had famously sworn off mentioning his opponents in negative ads after a losing 1990 run. His U.S. House debates against Democrats were fairly uneventful. When he faced former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg, a Democrat, he mostly ignored Gregg’s swipes at him for being a Washington, D.C., insider.

But when the format called for them to address each other, Pence calmly defended himself and counterattacked.

“Cutting is the not the Washington way,” Pence said. “But it’s my way … The truth of the matter is, facts are stubborn things. In five of the six years that you were speaker of the House, Indiana ran a deficit in the tens of millions of dollars. And frankly, John, when I look at your plans for more spending and more boutique tax cuts, it looks like we’re headed to the same path of red ink again.”

It was a polite retort. Gregg later attacked sharply, calling Pence a “show horse” and not a workhorse. Pence was told he couldn’t respond but could use his time in the next round.

“I believe I will,” he said to chuckles. And he did, accusing Gregg of negative personal attacks.

With a third candidate, Libertarian Rupert Boneham (from “Survivor” fame), taking up much time, there was no clear winner. But that was a small victory for Pence, who was looking to succeed fellow Republican, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, in a state that likes familiar names.

Pence beat Gregg narrowly, by 75,000 votes — or about 3 percent.

Now Pence must defend positions by Trump that Pence may not like. Pence supports NATO; Trump is skeptical. Pence supports free trade; Trump is skeptical.

Carroll believes Kaine will exploit this.

The spectacle could be great prime-time viewing, but most vice presidential debates do not draw big ratings. The one exception was the debate between then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and then-Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.

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But millions will still watch, and a flub or a gaffe could prove hurtful, even in the long-term. Joel K. Goldstein, a law professor at St. Louis University and an expert on the U.S. vice presidency, said Republican Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana got hurt in the 1988 veep debate.

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The media panel had been hounding Quayle, then 41, on the question of qualifications. But it was his opponent’s retort — when he was rebuked by Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas for comparing himself to President John F. Kennedy — that hurt.

Quayle would become vice president but people remembered the Democrat’s rebuke. The vice presidential debate’s spotlight is still intense.

“People are more interested in the presidency,” said Goldstein. “The vice presidential debate is when the spotlight shines on these candidates. It’s a significant moment.”