Trump’s Surge Boosts GOP Senate Prospects

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s surging White House prospects are giving a much needed boost to GOP Senate candidates in states where the Democrats once were competitive — or even ahead.

New polls show both Trump and Republican Senate candidates rising in the final few days of the campaign. That’s important, as the presidential popular vote winner has, since 2000, brought with him many new senators.

“The point, as we’ve said before, is just that Clinton’s so-called firewall is not very robust.”

In some cases, the newly competitive states were thought to be part of Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall,” and the Senate candidates there were thought as good as gone.

In New Hampshire, the entire Republican ticket appears to have risen in the last week, — likely buoyed by the FBI woes of Clinton.

Congress was informed on Oct. 28 that Clinton and her private email server were under renewed investigation because of emails discovered on the laptop of ex-Congressman Anthony Weiner, the estranged husband of top Clinton aide Huma Abedin.

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After that news, and Trump’s disciplined messages at various well-covered rallies, Democratic numbers began to shake.

Now in New Hampshire, a number of independent polls have found Trump and Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte in the lead. Even gubernatorial candidate Chris Sununu. was in the lead. Sununu, like Ayotte, had been struggling.

On Thursday, the Boston Globe and Suffolk University found Ayotte leading Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by a 2 points, 44-42. The same surveys found Trump and Clinton were tied.

WBUR and MassINC found a better lead for Ayotte the same day, by 6 points, 51 to 45. Trump was leading by 1 point.

By Friday, Trump was leading by 1.5 points in New Hampshire according to the RealClearPolitics average of recent state polls. Ayotte was leading by 2.5 points. And Sununu, who had failed to gain traction earlier this year, was leading by 4.3 points in the governor’s race.

It’s a stunning turn of events, since Clinton was averaging a 5-point lead in the Granite State as recently as Wednesday. And it has liberals nervous. political fortune teller Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, for one, is wondering if Clinton’s firewall of blue states can survive.

“The point, as we’ve said before, is just that Clinton’s so-called firewall is not very robust,” said a Thursday alert from Silver’s website. “If you’re only ahead in exactly enough states to win the Electoral College, and you’d lose if any one of them gets away, that’s less of a firewall and more of a rusting, chain-link fence.”

[lz_table title=”Poll average of Senate races” source=”Real Clear Politics”]
Likely voters

|New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (R), 47.2%
Maggie Hassan (D), 44.8%
|Indiana
Todd Young (R), 42.7%
Evan Bayh (D), 42%
|Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey (R), 44.4%
Karen McGinty (D), 47.4%
|Wisconsin
Ron Johnson (R), 44.3%
Russ Feingold (D), 47%
|Nevada
Joe Heck (R), 46.7%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D), 45.3%
[/lz_table]

New Hampshire is a crucial Senate seat for the Republicans to hold if they want to retain their majority. The GOP has a majority of 53 seats now. The Democrats need to win four new Senate seats if Hillary Clinton wins the White House. If Donald Trump wins, they need to net a pickup of five seats.

Ayotte’s improved fortunes come after her long political kabuki dance with Trump. After audio was released of Trump making lewd comments in 2005, Ayotte said she was not voting for Trump, or Clinton. Her numbers slid downward in the aftermath.

But the FBI controversy gave Ayotte sudden confidence in the effect of the presidential election on her race. At the final Senate debate on Wednesday, Ayotte ridiculed Hassan for not criticizing Clinton on the email issue.

“If she can’t call her out on this private email server, when is she ever going to call her out?” Ayotte said.

Another seat the Republicans likely need to hold is Indiana, which became an open race when Sen. Dan Coats, a Republican, announced he would be retiring. The little known Democrats who had entered the contest were not doing well in polling match ups against the GOP nominee, Rep. Todd Young of Bloomington, earlier this year.

So Democratic Minority Leader Harry Reid recruited former Sen. Evan Bayh, who had $9 million left over in his campaign account and massive name recognition in the state. He was senator from 1999 to 2011. The former Democratic nominee dropped out and Bayh was out on the ballot in July.

But things have gone downhill for Bayh. First, Young charged that Bayh doesn’t really live in Indiana, but rather resides in a multimillion-dollar townhouse in the Georgetown section of Washington, D.C. The GOP has also tied Bayh to various high-powered D.C. firms he has worked for.

On Friday, WTHR and the Howey Political Report released a poll showing Trump up 11 points in Indiana. Young was up 5 points on Bayh, 46 to 41.

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And even the governor’s race, left open when Gov. Mike Pence went to run with Trump as his vice presidential candidate, is now competitive again. Lt. Gov Eric Holcomb, the Republican, is tied with former Indiana House Speaker, John Gregg, at 42 percent each.

Perhaps the most surprising comeback in the polls is by Sen. Ron Johnson, the first-term Republican incumbent from Wisconsin. Johnson had been considered perhaps the second-most endangered Republican Senate incumbent, after Mark Kirk of Illinois.

Johnson had been lagging ex-Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat, since the summer. But recent polls show the race down to a 1 point. Marquette University found Feingold ahead, 45-44. Johnson had been behind by 11 points in August in the same poll.

Trump is still trailing Clinton in Wisconsin, which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.

The Republican Party’s fortunes are almost entirely baked in together at this point, with one final weekend that could swing most crucial states to the GOP. One last united push could win them the White House or the Senate — or both.