Trade Pact a Campaign Loser

Democratic and most Republican presidential candidates are opposing –- or at least refusing to endorse — the recently signed Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, suggesting they sense voters are not sharing the political Establishment’s enthusiasm for the deal.

In a rare bipartisan closing of ranks at the top levels in Washington, President Obama and House Speaker Paul Ryan are behind the pact. But withholding support for the 12-nation trade deal is one of the only matters on which most candidates from both parties actually agree.

Obama views completion of the TPP as one of the capstones of his foreign and economic policy legacy. It would constitute a foundational reworking of the global economic order by incorporating 40 percent of the world economy under its framework, and it would serve as a core component of his “strategic pivot” of U.S. foreign policy toward countering China’s growing influence in East Asia.

The deal, which has been dubbed by critics as “Obamatrade,” has been touted as a 21^st century trade agreement that will benefit the American worker, but there are serious concerns about the impacts it would have on U.S. sovereignty and its struggling economy.

Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley have gone out of their way to oppose the pact, largely to appease labor unions — who fear it will ship U.S. jobs overseas — and other liberal activists who say it is a massive handout to big corporations.

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Clinton, who was instrumental in bringing the U.S. into the TPP negotiations when she was Secretary of State, came out against the deal in October under the auspices that it did not live up to her lofty standards. In reality, her flip-flop was a political calculation intended to shore up her left flank.

Support for the deal will likely be a crucial litmus test among voters and the business community. 

Opinions are more varied in the GOP presidential field, and support for the deal will likely be a crucial litmus test among voters and the business community. Main Street Americans remain skeptical of the benefits of free trade agreements – questioning whether they destroy more jobs than they create — but big businesses stand to benefit from the greater access to foreign markets they provide.

In principle, Republicans remain more supportive than Democrats of textbook free market and free trade policies. Ben Carson, for example, came out on Friday as being inclined to support the deal because of its economic and geopolitical benefits.

Jeb Bush has also thrown his weight behind the TPP. Last spring, he penned an op-ed attacking Clinton for her double-mindedness on the deal while saying that he had “no problem supporting the TPP” and that the TPP is a “great deal for America.”

Others have lamented the agreement as being a far cry from textbook free trade, decrying it as crony capitalism and harmful to American interests.

“The incompetence of our current administration is beyond comprehension. TPP is a terrible deal,” Donald Trump tweeted in October after it was announced that the deal had been finalized. Earlier in the summer, he blasted Obama’s negotiators as “incompetent” and “weak and pathetic.”

Other candidates have straddled the fence by expressing support for free trade conceptually while remaining hesitant to give Obama a victory and additional powers.

Last spring, Ted Cruz came out in favor of Trade Promotion Authority – which gives the president the authority to negotiate trade agreements, and even cast a procedural vote to advance it in the Senate before changing his mind in June and opposing it as an instrument of the “Washington cartel.”

Marco Rubio voted for TPA and supports free trade principles but has yet to take a position on the TPP. Other candidates, including Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and Chris Christie, have indicated they could support the deal, but only under the right circumstances.