Whichever candidate emerges from the Republican primary field in the special election to replace Jeff Sessions in the U.S. Senate, voters likely will get a rock-solid conservative who mostly will support President Donald Trump’s agenda.

That’s not to say there are no differences among the three leading contenders. Each of those candidates would bring a distinct shade of conservatism to December’s general election, a contest the GOP nominee is expected to win handily given the rightward tilt of the Heart of Dixie over the past two decades.

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As in Republican primary contests across the country, Tuesday’s election will feature a battle between the Establishment and grass-roots conservatives. But Alabamians also can choose a strong representative of the evangelical, religious right.

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“We really have three tribes in the Alabama Republican Party,” said Steve Flowers, a former state representative whose political column now appears in 65 newspapers. “Most states only have two.”

If no one crosses 50 percent — the likeliest outcome — the top two finishers would head to a runoff in September. Polls suggest any of the top three contenders could make the runoff. Here is who they are and what a victory by each would mean:

The Establishment Candidate: Sen. Luther Strange
“Big Luther,” as his ads sometimes call him, is the nominal incumbent because he won the appointment to fill the seat after Sessions resigned to become attorney general. That has been both a blessing and a curse.

On the positive side, it has allowed Strange to build up a conservative voting record. He voted to repeal Obamacare and to confirm Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, for instance. Incumbency also has given Strange access to deep pockets. He has raised more than $3.2 million, more than the other nine candidates combined. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), also has dumped nearly $2 million into the race in support of Strange and pounded his opponents with negative ads.

But Strange’s appointment also comes with negatives. He got the appointment from Gov. Robert Bentley, who later resigned in disgrace amid a sex scandal. Strange, who was the state attorney general at the time, had been overseeing a criminal probe into whether Bentley misused state funds to facilitate his affair with an adviser. That brought allegations of a corrupt bargain that have dogged Strange ever since.

[lz_table title=”Alabama Senate Race” source=”Center for Responsive Politics”]Top fundraisers*
|Candidate,Raised,Spent
Luther Strange,$3.2M,$2.3M
Mo Brooks,$541.1K,$937.1K
Roy Moore,$456.8K,$286.4K
Trip Pittman,$390.4K,$183.1K
|
|Outside Spending
|Candidate,For,Against
Luther Strange,$569.9,$153.2K
Mo Brooks,$13.4K,$1.3M
Roy Moore,$81.2K,218.4K
|
*As of July 26
[/lz_table]

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Strange benefited from a surprise endorsement this month by Trump, a move that angered some conservatives in the state and raised eyebrows — particularly since the president began hitting McConnell on Twitter over inaction in the Senate.

A win by Strange would demonstrate that the power of incumbency and the Republican Establishment are alive and well in this deep red state and indicate that the president has pull with voters even amid his own political problems.

The Tea Party Conservative: Mo Brooks
Brooks, who represents northern Alabama in the House of Representatives, is one of the most conservative members of Congress and a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus.

Brooks has the backing of grass-roots conservative groups, including Tea Party Patriots, and national conservative thought leaders such as LifeZette Editor in Chief Laura Ingraham, Fox News host Sean Hannity, and radio talk-show host Mark Levin.

Brooks gained national attention and free media throughout the state in June when a gunman opened fire while he and other Republican members of Congress were practicing for the annual congressional baseball game. He even used the incident in an ad defending the Second Amendment — a TV spot that drew criticism from some, including an aide to shooting victim House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.).

A win by Brooks would show the power of the Tea Party and the willingness of Alabama Republicans to send someone to the Senate with the potential to cause headaches for Trump and McConnell by holding out for the most conservative version possible of legislation, even at the risk of killing those bills.

The Social Conservative Firebrand: Roy Moore
Moore has been a household name and controversial figure in the state since 2000, when he parlayed an American Civil Liberties Union lawsuit challenging his display of the Ten Commandments in the Etowah County courtroom into a successful run for chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court.

It did not take long for him to invite controversy. Without the knowledge or consent of the other justices, he had a large granite monument of the Ten Commandments erected in the lobby of the Alabama judicial building in the state capital of Montgomery. His failure to comply with a federal judge’s order to remove the monument following a lawsuit led to his ouster from the court.

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After a failed run for governor in 2006, Moore made a political comeback in 2012 to reclaim his old position as chief justice. In doing so, he defeated an incumbent who had been appointed by the governor and a Mobile County Circuit Court judge who once had been state attorney general. And he did so in a clean primary win, with no need for a runoff.

But Moore soon found himself mired in controversy once again, this time over gay marriage. After a federal judge in Mobile struck down the state’s ban on same-sex marriage — and the U.S. Supreme Court refused to block her decision from taking effect — Moore instructed the state’s probate court judges to follow state law, not the federal judge’s ruling.

The action led to Moore’s indefinite suspension, which formally ended when he resigned to run for the Senate.

A Moore victory would mean that Alabama Republicans want their senator to focus on social issues and that they don’t care whom that senator angers. Like Brooks, Moore would not be a senator that McConnell and Trump could count on automatically.

Most experts predict a runoff. A survey last week by Cygnal, a Montgomery-based opinion and research firm, suggested not only that but challenged the conventional wisdom that Moore could not win a head-to-head matchup. The poll gave him a lead of 8 percentage points over second-place finisher Strange.

In a hypothetical runoff against Strange, supporters of Brooks would divide almost evenly, and Moore would win by 10 points.

Brent Buchanan, president of Cyghal, said Trump’s endorsement could help Strange boost turnout.

“It does not change the mind of anyone who has already decided,” he said. “What it has the potential to do is turn out more low-propensity voters who like the president and will consider what he has to say.”

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But William Stewart, a University of Alabama political scientist, recalled that President Franklin Roosevelt — revered by Democrats in a state that was a second home — unsuccessfully waded into a 1938 Senate primary against incumbent Walter George.

While some see a possible opening for Democrats in Alabama’s December general election if Moore is the nominee, though, Stewart is skeptical.

“Alabama’s as red as it can be,” he said. “I think some people would hold their nose and vote for Moore.”