Pence is Playing It Smart

If the polls are correct today, and hold up through Nov. 8, Republican Donald Trump could lose to Democrat Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

That day is more than 25 days away and WikiLeaks is planning more disclosures to bedevil Clinton — so that outcome is far from a forgone conclusion.

“Obviously, anybody who didn’t support Trump is a dead-in-the-water nonstarter for 2020.  Jeb Bush and John Kasich …  Finished on the national level.”

But if Clinton manages to win on Nov. 8, she will enter the Oval Office damaged and carrying the highest negatives of any newly inaugurated president in modern history. If the economy doesn’t rebound under her leadership, she will be ripe for removal in 2020.

That election is a long way off in political time, but it may very well be Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Donald Trump’s running mate, who could be best positioned to take on Clinton.

Trump’s legions of grassroots followers will play a significant role in the 2020 Republican presidential primary. Pence is one of the few Republicans who can make a serious play for both the religious right — historically, a strong primary bloc in the GOP — and the Trump bloc. He can stitch together a powerful coalition from groups that might otherwise clash, given the sour and skeptical relationship between Team Trump and Establishment-backed wings of the GOP.

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And while most of Trump’s former rivals assumed that he would destroy himself by the end of the race, Pence instead bet that Trump’s army of supporters would reshape the base of the Republican Party.

Pence played it smart by accepting the vice presidential slot when most other Republicans who didn’t support Trump in the primaries took themselves out of contention. Pence also knew his main step to a 2020 or 2024 nomination would be a strong performance in the vice presidential debate. Pence delivered — his performance was a solid thumping of Democrat Tim Kaine. That unquestionably powerful performance would absolve Pence of any possible share of the blame in a Trump defeat.

While some lukewarm Trump supporters ran for the hills after someone at NBC News leaked audio tape to The Washington Post, Pence stood by Trump — even as he offered a rebuke to the Manhattan businessman for trash talk.

It’s why Pence is likely to emerge from a potential Trump defeat with the approval of Trump’s disappointed supporters — but not with any of the taint or blame. Because of the blame factor, other potential White House rivals won’t be able to count on the support of Trump’s fans in 2020.

“If Trump loses, Pence is in great shape for 2020,” said Eddie Zipperer, an assistant professor of political science at Georgia Military College. “Obviously, it will be very difficult to mend the Republican party, which is split between the traditional conservatives and the anti-globalists. Pence offers something to both groups.”

Helping Pence is the fact that some of Pence’s rivals look like they are nattering on the sidelines while their party needs help. Here’s how 2020 or 2024 rivals stack up to Pence.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich went for broke after it appeared he couldn’t win in the GOP primaries. He hasn’t endorsed Trump — but perhaps worst of all, he has openly continued to embrace amnesty for illegal immigrants. Amnesty and other compromises on illegal immigration are never going to be popular in the Republican Party, least of all with the newly configured Trump base.

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It is no secret to political observers that House Speaker Paul Ryan would likely rather be president than speaker of the House, and it shows. He stomped all over the momentum Trump had after Trump won the second debate by telling House members to campaign on their own. Trump now mentions the October betrayal every day. The repetition makes Ryan the face of GOP betrayal and promises to complicate not only his appeal to Trump’s millions of GOP primary voters, but his ability to lead his caucus through four years of a Clinton administration.

Jeb Bush is likely already toast. Bush is reportedly making calls to donors this month for a 2020 run. But his scars go deep from his 2016 loss. His “illegal immigration ‘is an act of love'” remark is maybe the worst moment for any candidate in the 2016 primaries. It taints him now and in the future.

Ted Cruz did not help himself by failing to endorse at the Republican National Convention, then doing a qualified Trump endorsement in late September. Cruz does well with religious voters but has no firm footing in the Midwest, the West, or the Northeast. Cruz caused a lot of needless drama that earned him no new constituents.

Marco Rubio is perhaps Pence’s biggest threat. He has kept his endorsement of Trump in place and he looks positioned to win back his Florida Senate seat next month. But Rubio failed to win big primary states in 2016 and Rubio still carries his biggest anvil: his attempted passage in 2013 of the amnesty compromise known as the “Gang of Eight.” While Rubio ran from the deal later, it hurt him in the 2016 GOP primary and will continue to plague him with conservative voters.

Zipperer says the damage to many of Pence’s rivals is large.

“Obviously, anybody who didn’t support Trump is a dead-in-the-water nonstarter for 2020.  Jeb Bush and John Kasich are done forever on a national level,” said Zipperer. “They will never, ever win the Republican nomination. All the neocons — the Lindsey Graham, John McCain, Kelly Ayotte wing of the party — done.  Finished on the national level.”

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Jack Pitney, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College in California, says Pence will have high name recognition with Republican voters in 2020. And if Trump manages to avoid a blowout loss, and makes it close, all the better for Pence.

“If it’s a reasonably close election, then it’s a much better position [for Pence],” said Pitney.

Pence will also be out of office. Like Richard Nixon in 1966, Ronald Reagan in 1978, and Mitt Romney in 2008, Pence will be able to travel the nation and help Republican candidates in the high-stakes 2018 midterm elections. That helps build goodwill for 2020. Cruz, Ryan, Rubio, and Kasich will be in office the next two years, while Pence can begin his campaign immediately.

It’s all theory until the need for a 2020 Republican job applicant becomes an issue. Trump could still win, and Election Day is not until Nov. 8. But if Trump doesn’t prevail, Pence has positioned himself at the head of the queue.