The Path to Reconciliation for U.S. and Mexico

President Trump’s surprise brinkmanship on Thursday, leading to a cancellation of a meeting with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, must be fixed, say experts.

For now, all of Washington is abuzz with questions on why the dust-up happened.

“It’s important to separate the illegal immigration issue from the legal bilateral trade issues … There is too much at stake for both countries.”

Why did Trump draw a line on Twitter? And how can the Trump administration fix the problem with Mexico?

Those are queries trade and foreign policy experts are beginning to address after a whirlwind of events brought the United States and its second-largest trading partner to the brink. In less than 24 hours, Trump ended his own team’s delicate trade negotiations with Mexico, talks that were critical to reforming the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

It started with tough talk from Mexico City — not on trade, but on Trump’s plan to build a wall along the southern border.

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Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto took to the airwaves, and publicly reiterated his opposition to the U.S. construction of a border wall — one that Mexico wouldn’t pay for.

Things got frosty very quickly.

Trump tweeted his displeasure on Thursday morning while the Mexican foreign secretary was still in meetings in the White House.

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Trump also suggested the bilateral meeting should be canceled if Mexico wasn’t willing to pay for the wall.

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Challenged by Trump, Peña Nieto called Trump’s bluff and canceled the scheduled meeting for Tuesday.

What has diplomatic sources scratching their heads is that in a Wednesday interview with ABC News’ David Muir, Trump had already indicated he would accept alternative ways to pay for the wall.

“I never said they’re gonna pay from the start,” Trump told Muir. “I said Mexico will pay for the wall. But what I will tell my supporters is, ‘Would you like me to wait two years or three years before I make this deal?’ … So, if you want, I can wait two years and then we can do it nice and easily. I want to start the wall immediately.”

Beltway pundits were unforgiving.

“It’s the first foreign policy rupture of the administration,” remarked David Ignatius of The Washington Post. “And was unnecessary.”

Trump friend and MSNBC host Joe Scarborough said, “It seemed like the sabotage was intentional and went against what his own staff was putting together.”

“He’s creating so many small flaps and storms that they become the story,” Ignatius added, referring to the issue of torture.

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox jumped in, stirring Mexican anger while speaking to NBC Today.

“Trump has brought back a very strong Mexican spirit and we’re ready for the trade war, and we’re ready, of course, for not paying [for] that wall,” Fox told NBC.

Trump himself stirred the pot again on Friday morning with a tweet suggesting the U.S. has gotten a raw deal from the bilateral relationship.

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Trump supporters said the new U.S. president should ignore the noise, and quit creating some of it on social media. It’s time, they say, to get back to diplomacy, and to use the conventional diplomatic process to win what he wants.

“President Trump has to curb his propensity to use tweets to conduct diplomatic business,” said Robert Kaufman, a professor of public policy at Pepperdine University. “His job is not just to make peace but to convey his determination to change the status quo. So he should not apologize, but emphasize this is a bargaining process that can yield a decent outcome if the Mexican government takes our considerations seriously.”

Kaufman said Trump is trying to drive a hard bargain. It’s likely Trump is learning business negotiations are not the same as diplomatic negotiations.

“President Trump is negotiating as in the art of the deal,” Kaufman told LifeZette. “The proposals we hear are just that: some opening gambits; others unsubstantiated rumors … If his pre-presidential experience is any guide, President Trump will drive a hard bargain, but will bargain.”

Meanwhile, despite the increased tensions and the obvious posturing by both nations, former Republican State Department officials predict a rapprochement between Peña Nieto and Trump, sooner rather than later.

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Some experts want to be clear that the trade talks must be separated from the wall.

“It’s important to separate the illegal immigration issue from the legal bilateral trade issues,” said Richard Grenell, a former U.S. spokesman at the United Nations from 2001-2008.

“Both sides need to have strong and fair pacts that recognize the new economy,” Grenell noted. “There is too much at stake for both countries.”

Experts say the economic and strategic realities make it imperative that both countries improve their relationship. For Peña Nieto, a successful collaboration with the United States allows him to save face and preserve some level of dignity for the Mexican people. That part is key.

For Trump, a good solution keeps him on track to fulfill the bulk of his border enforcement promises.

For now, Trump will host his first foreign leader — British Prime Minister Theresa May — at the White House Friday afternoon. May has made clear she is ready to deal with Trump, and there are no signs of diplomatic tension.

One U.S. official, speaking anonymously, said Trump is likely also ready to be as welcoming to Peña Nieto.

“I predict they’ll talk today, if they already haven’t,” said one official familiar with the ongoing negotiations. “And the meeting will be back on the schedule.”