On to Arizona and Utah

With Tuesday’s primaries now in the books, the race for the 2016 Republican nomination turns to the March 22 contests in Arizona and Utah, with the outcome likely to marginally advance Trump’s lead.

As things currently look, Trump and Cruz are set to split the states, with Trump favored to score Arizona’s 58 delegates in the winner-take all primary. But Cruz may have the upper hand in Utah’s caucuses and could win all of its 40 delegates if he eclipses 50 percent of the vote.

There has been little public polling in Arizona and Utah, and it is uncertain how Tuesday’s results might influence voters. With the window for overcoming Trump’s growing delegate lead closing, Cruz needs every state he can muster, particularly in a region where he appears strong.

Arizona on paper seems tailor-made for Cruz. It is the land of Goldwater conservatism and features a “closed” primary, meaning only Republicans can vote. Cruz has fared better in states that bar Democrats and independents for participating.

Trump’s tough immigration stand plays well among Republican voters in this border state

But Trump’s tough immigration stand plays well among Republican voters in this border state. A poll conducted this month by MBQF Consulting put Trump in first place with 37 percent of the vote. Cruz was second with 23 percent. MBQF owner Mike Noble, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential campaigns, said Trump’s support has held steady in monthly surveys dating to the summer.

“He really hasn’t budged that significantly,” he said. “It’s always gravitated between 35 and 40 percent.”

Notably, among the 47 percent who had already voted, Trump’s lead was nearly 18 percentage points, according to MBQF. Arizona has an inordinately high share of early voters. Garrett Archer, a data specialist with an Arizona-based marketing and political consulting firm called Integrated Web Strategy, said about 270,000 ballots already have been cast. He estimated that the Election Day proportion of votes will be close to the 25 percent who voted on the day of the primary in 2012.

“I would suspect the distance between Trump and Cruz probably is already beyond the insurmountable level,” he said.

Unlike most states, where Trump has competed for votes without institutional Republican support — and in some cases facing outright hostility — he counts a pair of high-profile endorsements in Arizona. Former Gov. Jan Brewer, associated with a state initiative to crack down on illegal immigration, and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio have backed him.

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“Remember, Trump was one of the first ones to bring immigration to the forefront, and that’s a big issue for Republican primary voters out here,” Noble said.

Donald Crtitchlow, a political science professor at Arizona State University, said the contours of the race largely have settled, based on his talks to Republican clubs and other gatherings.

“A lot of people have made up their minds already,” he said. “What’s not clear in talking to the groups … is where the Rubio voters are going.”

Crtitchlow said be believes they are unlikely to break for Trump, but he added that the real estate mogul most likely will win.

Utah, meanwhile, could be a different story. There is even less data from Utah. But the New York Times, using data from the Civis Analytics that estimated support for Trump at the congressional district level, determined in December that Utah was one of his worst states.

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Brigham Young University political science professor Adam Dynes said Utah Republicans are more conservative than average and, therefore, perhaps more likely than Republicans in other states to be concerned by Trump’s past record of deviations from conservative orthodoxy. In addition, he said, Trump’s brash style clashes with Mormon sensibilities.

“His incivility is really off-putting for a lot of LDS members,” he said.

One potential wild card is new rules that will allow Republican voters to cast online ballots instead of attending a caucus site. Dynes said it is difficult to say how that might affect the outcome.