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Many analysts believe the X-factor is Trump’s approval rating. Still basking in approval from his handling of 9/11, President George W. Bush enjoyed a 63 percent approval rating in the last Gallup poll before the 2002 elections. Republicans picked up eight House seats. But popularity did not save other presidents from presiding over midterm losses. George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon, and Dwight Eisenhower all saw Republican losses despite personal popularity.

President Donald Trump did get some good news last week with a Rasmussen report pegging his approval rating at 50 percent, but as of Sunday, his RealClearPolitics average approval rating was 40.4 percent. That is the territory that tends to spawn election waves. Eric Ostermeier, research associate at the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said 2018 could produce a similar result.

Did Dems Learn 2016 Lessons?
But Ostermeier said such a result is not guaranteed. Retirements by incumbents and candidate recruitment will matter, he said. And Democrats will have to find a way to connect with middle America better than they did in 2016, he said.

[lz_table title=”Republicans Representing Hillary Districts”]Republican representing districts Clinton won.
|Representative,District,2016*
Ros-Lehtinen,Florida 27th,19.7
Curbelo,Florida 26th,16.1
Valadao,California 21st,15.5
Comstock,Virginia 10th,10
Coffman,Colorado 6th,8.9
Royce,California 39th,8.6
Paulsen,Minnesota 3rd,8.3
Issa,California 49th,7.5
Roskam,Illinois 6th,7
Knight,California 25th,6.7
Walters,California 45th,5.5
McSally,Arizona 2nd,4.9
Katko,New York 24th,3.6
Hurd,Texas 23rd,3.4
Reichert,Washington 8th,3
Meehan,Pennsylvania 7th,2.3
Sessions,Texas 32nd,1.9
Rohrabacher,Cailfornia 48th,1.7
Culberson,Texas 7th,1.4
Yoder,Kansas 3rd,1.2
Lance,New Jersey 7th,1.1
Costello,Pennsylvania 6th,.6
Denham,California 10th,.3
|
*Clinton’s margin of victory
[/lz_table]

“I don’t see that they learned any lessons from 2016,” he said. “If Democrats don’t show any sign of altering the messaging, they are at risk of shooting themselves in the foot if presented with an opportunity to flip the House … There is hope for the Democrats in 2018. But there’s no reason for them to practice their touchdown dance yet.”

Kondik, of the University or Virginia, argued that Republicans might be better positioned than past congressional majorities to withstand political headwinds.

“The GOP does have a few defenses: The district lines in most states are favorable to them, and at the moment they have not lost many vulnerable incumbents to retirement,” he wrote. “Incumbents are generally easier to defend than open seats. But a big enough wave – if it develops – is enough to overcome these defenses.”

Some conservative activists said it is up to Republicans in Congress to save themselves from defeat. Michael Johns, president and executive director of Tea Party Community, said Trump has instilled credibility in the party that was lacking before and has raised expectations for big accomplishments. Now it is up to Congress to deliver, he said.

[lz_related_box id=”809856″]

“Literally, right now, we are at a crossroads,” he said. “The Republican Party is going to go to the midterms and ask to be returned either as the party of President Trump who made bold promises and delivered on those promises, or the party of the president who made bold promises and delivered nothing.”

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Mark Meckler, co-founder of Tea Party Patriots and president of Citizens for Self-Governance, said he believes past history and conventional history mean nothing with Trump. He said he believes polls underestimate the president’s support and argued that Democrats face a backlash from constant focus on Russia and impeachment.

“I do think a wave election is building, but I think it’s going in the other direction … People are sick and tired of Democrats playing games,” he said. “If you look at core support, he [Trump] has not lost any. And they [Democrats] lost an election on that.”[lz_pagination]