Mavericks Lead, Cash Storm Looms

The summer of 2016 has been the season of ascendant mavericks.

Bucking the established rules of politics, along with the prim protocol of establishment chiefs in Washington, D.C., businessman Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont have generated massive enthusiasm among the bases of their respective parties.

“It’s one thing to have ‘The Summer of Trump,’ but it doesn’t mean anything unless we win,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Iowa. “We have to win both the nomination and beat Hillary (Clinton) — or whoever it is.”

New polling released Tuesday showed Trump has opened a dominant 24-point first place lead in New Hampshire. The poll, conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, also showed Sanders stretching his lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state beyond the margin of error, to 7 points.

There is no question that Trump and to a lesser extent Sanders have decisively won the first campaign of the 2016 contest. But the real war for the GOP nomination has not yet fully begun. And it will be bloody, of that we can be sure.

“It’s one thing to have ‘The Summer of Trump,’ but it doesn’t mean anything unless we win,” Trump himself said Tuesday at a campaign rally in Iowa. “We have to win both the nomination and beat Hillary (Clinton) — or whoever it is.”

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Most of the GOP’s top-tier contenders have not even begun to run television ads. Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and others have yet to spend any of their campaign war chests on the airwaves in key early states. These top contenders are stockpiling ammunition in anticipation of the real battle — the carpet bombing missions run on broadcast television and driven by tens of millions of dollars, hundreds even, leading up to the actual voting.

But there’s an awful lot of dry powder out there. As of Aug. 20, the entire GOP field had only spent $11.9 million on television ads, according to Smart Media Group. That combined firepower from 17 GOP candidates amounts to barely more than the sums spent by John McCain ($10.4 million) and Mitt Romney ($10.3 million) each in the single month of January 2008.

The top-tier Democratic contenders blasted each other with even greater sums of cash in January 2008, the month that hosted the first nominating contests. Then-Sen. Clinton spent $28.4 million and then-Sen. Barack Obama spent an even $30 million.

By Jan. 21, 2008, the combined total spent by the two battling liberals through the course of the entire contest reached $221 million, or 138 times the amount spent so far in the 2016 Democratic contest, and nearly 20 times the amount spent by all 17 candidates in the GOP field thus far.

While Trump appears dominant now, having led 15 national polls since July 9, others have been in his position before, only to succumb to the weight of well-funded establishment juggernauts.

From mid-August to late September 2011, then-incumbent Gov. Rick Perry of Texas led 17 national polls by as much as 19 points. Perry suspended his campaign by mid-January 2012 after his infamous “Oops” debate moment.

By dominating the early media coverage, Trump has gained staying power, but the winner of the TV ad war will likely be the GOP nominee for president.

From mid-November to mid-December, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich led 13 polls by as much as 21 points and won the early primary state of South Carolina — only to crumble under an onslaught of negative ads in Florida from Romney. Gingrich bowed out of the race on May 2, yielding to his far better funded adversary.

By dominating the early media coverage so far, Trump has gained staying power, but the winner of the TV ad war will likely be the GOP nominee for president.

That is why Trump is more of a threat to the establishment’s favorite picks than Perry or Gingrich ever were. Trump, with a net worth of $12 billion (or $9 billion, or $7 billion, depending on whose numbers you like), can summon near limitless reserves of cash, as far as campaign budgets go.

Related: Trump Clobbers the Media

That next — and most contentious — phase of political warfare will begin soon. Right to Rise PAC, the super PAC backing Bush, has reserved an initial $10 million on broadcast TV to begin Sept. 15. Hillary Clinton began running her first ads in August with a $2 million buy.

The pro-Trump super PAC is expected to reserve airtime in the coming days for the first salvo of ads supporting the real estate mogul.

It remains to be determined how much of his own fortune Trump is willing to commit to the race, or if the current frontrunner will reverse his position against taking campaign donations.

What is certain is that voters in early states can expect a season of sustained and bloody political battle, and they can expect the first real skirmishes on the airwaves to get underway soon.