Having come up short in Kansas and Montana, and likely to lose in South Carolina as well, the so-called Resistance has turned to Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District as its best hope of sticking it to President Donald Trump.
Lose here, and Democrats will be shut out of chances to flip a seat in 2017.
The district in Atlanta’s northern suburbs has been reliably Republican since Newt Gingrich won it in the 1970s, but Trump won it by only 1.5 percentage points in 2016, and the more liberal southern and western areas have experienced rapid growth. What’s more, Democrat Jon Ossoff has raised more money than any other candidate for the House of Representatives in Georgia history and has a motivated base.
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To hold the seat, Republican Karen Handel will have to overcome that Democratic enthusiasm, illustrated by the Zamora family of four, who voted together at an early-voting site in Fulton County over the weekend. It was the first time the Zamoras all had gone to the polls together, and all said they cast ballots for Ossoff.
Jorge Zamora, an Atlanta college student, said his initial impulse was merely to counter Trump but since has developed a genuine affection for Ossoff, a 30-year-old documentary filmmaker who once worked as an aide to Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.).
“At first, it was to send a message,” he told LifeZette. “It was a general feeling. As things got close, we focused on what he could bring to the district.”
His father, also named Jorge Zamora, agreed. “More for him,” rather than against Trump, he said.
Everything points to a close result on June 20. With the exception of one SurveyUSA poll that Handel dismissed as “crap,” every public survey taken since she and Ossoff emerged as the top two vote-getters in the first round of voting in April has put the margin at 2 points or less. In the 18-candidate first round, Republican candidates combined to win 51 percent of the vote, compared to the 49 percent that went to Ossoff and the other Democrats.
Tens of millions of dollars have poured into Ossoff’s campaign coffers — mostly from outside of Georgia. By the end of March, according to campaign finance reports, he already had collected $8.3 million, 95 percent of which came from outside the district. That has allowed him to blanket the television and radio airwaves with commercials, accusing Handel of spendthrift ways when she was Georgia’s secretary of state.
Which Candidate Can Touch the Most Voters?
Republican strategist Julianne Thompson said she believes the key to victory will not be attack ads but which campaign is better at getting core supporters to the polls. She believes Handel has the edge.
“With this particular race … it’s not going to be who has the most spots and it’s not going to be who does the [best in] debates — it’s going to be who touches the most people personally,” she said. “Each campaign is working hard. They’re working hard in different ways.”
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Handel, who also has served as Fulton County Commission chairwoman, said on “The Laura Ingraham Show” last week that her volunteers are knocking on 3,000 to 4,000 doors a day. Ossoff may have an easier time motivating Democrats, who already are aching to hit Trump.
“It’s always easier to run against something than for something,” Thompson said.
Handel took precious time away from the district on Saturday to fire up Republicans at the state GOP convention in Augusta, 135 miles away. She began her address with a reference to “The Devil Went Down to Georgia,” and left the stage with the Charlie Daniels classic blaring in the convention hall.
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“Nancy’s coming down to Georgia,” she said, referring to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). “She’s looking for a seat to steal. I don’t know whether she plays the fiddle … It kind of feels like all hell has broken loose in Georgia.”
Republicans had more than Handel’s race to worry about, as they elected a new party chairman and listened to speeches from candidates seeking to make an early impression ahead of 2018 campaigns for statewide offices. But the congressional ace figured prominently.
“I have never seen such an onslaught of outside liberal attacks on the state,” Georgia Labor Commissioner Mark Butler told the convention.
The national money, the outpouring of support for Ossoff from the Hollywood Left, and the specter of Trump have combined to generate unprecedented interest in a special election that ordinarily would be expected to attract a small turnout of hard-core supporters on either side. According to an analysis of early voting by political scientist Michael McDonald, participation so far is ahead of the 2016 general election at the same point.
“Love him or hate him, Trump gets ratings,” McDonald tweeted Friday. “He’s driving voter engagement unlike any politician in modern times.”
“Love him or hate him, Trump gets ratings,” McDonald tweeted Friday. “He’s driving voter engagement unlike any politician in modern times.”
As of Saturday, 46,648 people had voted early in person or by mail. According to McDonald, Republicans were outpacing Democrats based on the last party primary those voters had participated in. But the highest number comes from voters who did not vote in either primary, so it is difficult to gauge which candidate is benefiting the most.
State Senate Race a Harbinger?
Kay Kirkpatrick, who won a special election for the state Senate last month in a district situated almost entirely within the Sixth Congressional District, called herself the “canary in the coal mine” during a speech at the state convention. But she represents the wealthiest district in the state senate, and most of it is within Republican-leaning Cobb County.
She said in an interview with LifeZette the 57 percent that she garnered might not foretell much about Handel’s race.
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“I think the only thing it predicts is turnout is going to be higher on both sides,” said Kirkpatrick, who noted that turnout for her special election was much higher than her consultant had anticipated, and that voter participation actually increased for the runoff.
All of that volatility has independent experts finding the race difficult to handicap as the campaign enters the final two weeks.
“Republicans should have a bit of an edge,” said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia. “But Ossoff has raised so much money — tons and tons of ads — but what both sides have done is knock on lots of doors. That could make the difference.
M.V. “Trey” Hood, director of the university’s Survey Research Center, sad Ossoff has the easier task in a way. In the first round, he pointed out, Ossoff won the votes of nearly ever Democratic voter. That gives him a solid, consolidated base, Hood said.
Handel must make sure she wins the votes of the many Republicans who chose different candidates in the first round, Hood said. He said he does not expect many of those voters to pick Ossoff, but he added that every Republican who skips the runoff puts Ossoff closer to the finish line.
“If it’s razor-close, if any of that support doesn’t show up, that could make the difference,” he said.
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