Death of the Free Trade Pact

The four leading candidates for president are all on record against the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, and large majorities of Republican and Democratic primary voters are rejecting the concept of free trade.

Never in the past generation have the forces for free trade been in such disarray.

Experts said the emerging bipartisan consensus on trade will make it harder to win ratification of the TPP and could jeopardize future deals, or even existing trade pacts. Even supporters of liberalized global trade have detected a significant shift in public opinion over the past year.

“It was easier to argue for free trade in the 50s and 60s, when the United States really didn’t have significant international competition,” said John Moser, co-chairman of the American history and government master’s program at Ashland University in Ohio.

Weak economic growth since the 2008 financial collapse has also hurt trade’s popularity, Moser said.

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“That’s one of the problems people almost reflexively go to in times of economic turmoil,” he said. “I understand why it’s happening. It doesn’t make it any less dangerous.”

In Moser’s view, expanding trade promotes peace and reduces conflict among nations. Many economists also argue that trade creates efficiency and increases wealth for all nations involved.

But Alan Tonelson, an economic policy analyst who has been critical of trade deals, said the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over the past two decades deserves some of the blame for the wage stagnation and slow growth that have hobbled economic performance over the last 10 years. He said those conditions have helped turn public opinion against trade.

[lz_table title=”Voters Saying Trade Takes Away U.S. Jobs” source=”Exit polls”]State,GOP,Dem
Pennsylvania,53%,42%
Wisconsin,54%,Not asked
Illinois,51%,44%
North Carolina,58%,44%
Michigan,55%,57%
[/lz_table]

“Certainly people are more influenced by events, we might say, on the ground,” he said. “It’s losing momentum. I wouldn’t say that it’s lost momentum.”

Tonelson said an upswing in the economy could soften opposition to trade in the public and raise the appetite for trade deals in Congress.

Public opinion on the question is hard to measure because its complexity creates widespread confusion. A Gallup poll released this month, for instance, found that 58 percent of Americans view free trade as an opportunity for economic growth, compared with 34 percent who rated it a threat to the economy. But a survey published Thursday found Americans evenly divided over whether the country should withdraw from the TPP and the North American Free Trade Agreement — 28 percent in favor and 28 percent against. Half also favored stricter import duties on Chinese imports.

[lz_table title=”Percentage in Congress Voting for Trade Deals”]Agreement,GOP,Dem
NAFTA,76%,41%
CAFTA,86%,10%
Australia-U.S.,89%,58%
Peru-U.S.,90%,49%
U.S.-Colombia,95%,21%
U.S.-Korean,92%,40%
TPA*,79%,18%
|*Fast track authority for TPP
[/lz_table]

The wording of polls can make a big difference. A Bloomberg News survey conducted in March indicated that 65 percent favored a trade policy with more restrictions on imports to protect U.S. jobs over fewer restrictions to help consumers.

In a number of states that have held primaries, Democrats were split on whether trade creates or takes away U.S. jobs. Pluralities of Republicans — and Democrats in some states — said trade takes away jobs.

Douglas Irwin, a Dartmouth University professor and author of the 2015 book “Free Trade Under Fire,” said that Republican Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders have forced their chief rivals, Democratic Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz, to pivot away from previous support for trade.

Irwin said Clinton, whose opposition to TPP is weaker and more qualified, could tack back depending on the political environment. He said that this is what Bill Clinton did after campaigning against NAFTA and then signing it as president after the addition of side agreements on labor. But Clinton enjoyed the support of most Republicans in Congress. Hillary Clinton might find a different environment.

Support for trade deals has cooled among Democratic members of Congress since NAFTA, which 41 percent of the party’s representatives and senators supported. By the time Congress passed the Central American Free Trade Agreement in the Bush administration, only 10 percent voted “aye.” Even with Obama in the White House, support for fast-track negotiating authority for the Pacific trade deal was only 18 percent.

Those deals passed largely with Republican votes. More than three-quarters of the GOP congressional caucus voted “aye” all three times. But Irwin said politicians are likely re-evaluating their positions.

“There will also be a lot more opposition among Republicans,” Irwin said. “That’s because Donald Trump’s campaign has sensitized the issue.”

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It raises the question of whether TPP supporters will try to ram it through after the election but before the new Congress and president take office. Tonelson called a lame-duck vote “a live possibility,” and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) issued a warning from the Senate floor this week.

“Certainly, the heat is off politicians voting in lame-duck sessions, and that would make it easier to get through,” Irwin said. “But I don’t think anyone fully expected the anti-trade rhetoric that we’ve seen in the campaign so far, and that would make it harder.”

Moser, the Ashland professor, said the most trade advocates might hope for in the near term is that a President Clinton would at least preserve the status quo.

“It may be she will never be a free trade advocate like her husband was,” he said. “But it could be that anti-free-trade efforts will fall by the wayside.”