Trump’s Debate Challenge

Republican Donald Trump is likely to get his best opportunity to revive a flagging campaign a little more than a month from now — with the first presidential debate.

He and Democrat Hillary Clinton will duel, unfiltered, in front of what is likely to be the biggest audience either will have during the entire campaign.

“The debates are much more watched than, say, a convention speech … It’s hard to overstate the importance of the first debate.”

For his sake, he’d better be ready.

“I think it will be pretty significant, pretty profound,” said Ben Voth, director of debate at Southern Methodist University in Texas. “The debates are much more watched than, say, a convention speech … It’s hard to overstate the importance of the first debate.”

Voth, an expert in debate and persuasion who also serves as an adviser to the Bush Institute, said the first debate is likely to have the largest audience of any of the debates — perhaps as many as 80 million TV viewers.

The dynamics of the presidential debates favor Trump, Voth said. He said the incumbent has been judged the loser in the first debate during every presidential election. Challengers typically arrive at the debates having had much more recent experience on the debate stage. This election season, for instance, Trump participated in far more primary debates than Clinton did.

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“That always helps the challenger,” he said. “It really would not take much for Trump to prosper.”

Trump showed little interest in convention debate preparation prior to his many encounters with his GOP competitors during the primaries. The approach worked fine. But a similar strategy in a head-to-head debate with Clinton would be a major gamble.

“It’s a risk,” said Candice Nelson, a political science professor at American University in Washington. “When there’s 10 people on the stage, no one can talk for very long. A few well-placed one-liners can win the debate … When you’re up there for an hour and a half [against a single competitor], it’s a different story.”

There are signs Trump is taking a different approach, however. According to several media reporters, former Fox News Chairman Roger Ailes is advising Trump. That would be a sign that Trump is not planning to simply improvise his way through the Sept. 26 debate.

In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney made effective use of mock debates, with Ohio Sen. Rob Portman playing the role of President Obama.

“President Obama in 2012 in the first debate wasn’t very prepared,” Nelson said. “You saw what happened. He was prepared for the other two.”

Alan Schroeder, a journalism professor at Northeastern University in Boston and author of “Presidential Debates: Risky Business on the Campaign Trail,” noted that Trump — unlike Clinton — has never debated a political opponent one on one.

“She’s got a lot of experience, going all the way back to 2000 with her Senate race against Rick Lazio,” he said. “Each candidate is a unique individual, and you want to prep them in a way that plays to their strengths. On the other hand, you don’t want to be too loose about it.”

Experts warned that it would be a mistake to take Clinton lightly. Christopher Devine, a political science professor at the University of Dayton, said the former secretary of state may not deliver the most inspiring debate performance — but added that “it’s probably going to be a very competent one.”

Even if Trump does rehearse, Devine said he does not expect Trump to be like any other debater. But he pointed to Trump’s acceptance speech as evidence that he can deliver a performance more in line with conventional campaigning.

“His personality will come through in ways that may help or hurt him,” he said. “But he’s also shown he’s capable of being disciplined in a big setting.”

Jacob Neiheisel, a political science professor at the University of Buffalo, said Trump needs to demonstrate a command of facts and policy. A gaffe on the debate stage would be far more magnified than misstating a fact on a Sunday news show, he said.

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“He can’t trot out on stage and say Russia’s not in Ukraine,” he said.

But Neiheisel said he expected Trump to bone up.

“If he has anybody who’s nominally affiliated with the Republican Party apparatus, they’re going to have someone who plays the part of Hillary and gives an answer like she would,” he said.

Craig Shirley, a political consultant and Ronald Reagan biographer, said the Gipper used his one debate with Jimmy Carter in 1980 to overcome lingering doubts that he was an acceptable alternative to the status quo. He said Trump has a similar opportunity — but added that he cannot just wing it.

“He’s going to have to develop some interest in traditional presidential politics at some point,” he said.

Voth, the SMU debate expert, said he expects a mixture of Trump’s personality and conventional preparation.

“Even with the preparation, we’ll probably see the same wildcarding behavior by Trump,” he said. “But I think he will succumb to debate prep.”