In the latest sign of growing strength for GOP nominee Donald Trump in key battleground states, Iowa has been upgraded to leaning toward a Trump win, while Colorado, once thought out of reach for Trump, has been downgraded for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
The Cook Political Report moved the crucial Midwestern state of Iowa toward Trump Friday. The Cook Report previously listed the state as a “tossup,” but Trump’s consistent polling margins there got the Hawkeye State moved to “leans Trump.”
Walter also notes the Iowa GOP establishment is behind Trump, indicating that if some in the GOP abandon their “Never Trump” stance, Trump can win.
“Former Secretary of State Clinton has not been able to find her footing here despite a heavy paid media presence,” wrote Amy Walter of the Cook Report. “The most recent polls show Trump up by 5-8 points, with the RealClearPolitics average at 4.3 percent.”
Walter also notes the Iowa GOP establishment is behind Trump, indicating that if some in the GOP abandon their “Never Trump” stance in other states, Trump can tilt the advantage in his favor.
Trump had been polling well in Iowa for a while — so perhaps more shocking is the movement in Colorado.
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The Cook Report said Clinton had been confident of her strength in this Western battleground state, so she pulled TV advertising from Colorado. That may have been a strategic blunder.
The Cook Report downgraded the state for Clinton, from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.
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“The RealClearPolitics average for the month shows Clinton ahead but by a narrower 2.5 percent,” Walter wrote. “Democrats remain confident that Clinton will win the state but they are increasingly worried that Gary Johnson could be siphoning off Clinton votes.”
Polling bears out Walter’s ratings. On Thursday, Quinnipiac University released its Colorado poll. The numbers are encouraging for Trump. The poll found a two-way race tied at 47 percent. In a four-way race in the Centennial State, Trump is within the margin of error, with Clinton at 44 percent, and Trump at 42 percent.
Walter wrote that a pro-Clinton PAC has started run ads in Colorado, but only in Spanish. Trump definitely has an opening in the Rocky Mountain state, and if he exploits it, Clinton could be forced to stop trying to provoke a battle in traditionally red states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
Fighting in Colorado may be essential for Trump. Walter notes that if you add in all the states that Clinton has in her leaning or likely columns, she wins 272 electoral votes, enough to win the White House on Nov. 8.
But if Trump wins all his likely or leaning states, and wins the tossup states, he still loses. Trump needs to pick off one or two “leaning Democratic” states such as Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire.
Today, that prospect of running the table and then some became much more of a reality for Trump.
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