The statement this week that West Virginia’s Democrat gubernatorial nominee, Jim Justice, will not support Hillary Clinton created a lot of ink across the Mountain State and across the nation. While at best a political stunt, the curious move showcases the death of the Democrat Party in rural America and sets up two interesting election cycles for political spectators. Further, Justice’s move tests just how well a time-honored Democrat tradition of saying one thing and doing another will hold up in West Virginia.

In recent years, West Virginia’s story has sparked intrigue — the state, which voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988, saw Mitt Romney carry all 55 counties in 2012. West Virginia, once the state of Robert C. Byrd, has embraced a new brand of conservatism and there is no turning back.

Jim Justice became a Democrat during a time when it made no political sense, so his move must have been ideological. His attempt to back away from Hillary Clinton is as predictable as it is insincere.

Jim Justice’s quixotic candidacy put him on a desperate path to carve out a niche that no longer exists. Complicating Justice’s statement about Hillary Clinton is that he contributed to the Democratic National Committee in 2012, thus supporting the re-election of the most liberal, anti-coal president in American history.

West Virginians resoundingly rejected Barack Obama in 2008 and doubled down on those sentiments in 2012.

Adding another complication for Justice is that he left the Republican Party only eighteen months ago to become a Democrat. Clearly, after contributing to the DNC and seeing the political tide turning red in West Virginia, the only reason to become a Democrat would be due to deep-rooted passion for the ideology of the modern Democrat Party. Therein lies the problem for Justice — the vast majority of West Virginians are openly hostile to the ideology of the Democrat Party.

Private citizen Justice supported the DNC in the era of Obama — but candidate Justice now says he cannot support Hillary Clinton. Private citizen Justice freely joined the Democrat Party — but candidate Justice now backs away from his party’s presidential nominee.

[lz_table title=”The GOP’s Gubernatorial Ascendence” source=”Republican Net Change in Governor’s Seats 2009-2015″]Election Year, GOP Net Increase
2015, 0
2014, +2
2012, +1
2013, -1
2011, 0
2010, +6
2009, +2
|Total Since 2009, +10
[/lz_table]

This is a common history in West Virginia. Justice borrowed the West Virginia Democrat Party candidate playbook by attempting pseudo-conservative rhetoric with a plan to govern as a liberal. For decades, the Mountain State has been subject to countless Democrats espousing fiscal and social conservatism, only to see those same Democrats become more and more liberal the farther from their constituents they ventured.

The last decade has seen the decimation of the Democrat Party in West Virginia — their registration numbers plummeted, and Republicans took control of both chambers of the state legislature and all but one remaining federal seat. However, the one remaining federal Democrat from West Virginia is Justice’s own puppet master, Senator Joe Manchin. Manchin himself openly flirted with returning to his old job as governor but instead coaxed Justice to run as his proxy.

Manchin holds Hillary Clinton on a pedestal, but his own political skill has saved him in the past. He follows the same strategy — lie about being a conservative and then vote against the state’s wishes. Despite a resounding endorsement of Obama at the 2008 Democrat National Convention, Manchin still managed to win re-election.

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West Virginia is a highly personal state. Our politicians are our neighbors. We expect the same relationship with our governor and U.S. senators as we do with our local officials. As a result of these personal relationships, it often takes multiple election cycles and multiple bad actions for voters to punish an incumbent for working against their wishes. Manchin is on the verge of being punished.

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If Manchin chooses to seek re-election in 2018, all eyes will be on West Virginia. Manchin is 2018’s Mary Landrieu — but the question remains whether the archetypal Democrat playbook will work in West Virginia again in 2016.

Jim Justice became a Democrat during a time when it made no political sense, so his move must have been ideological. His attempt to back away from Hillary Clinton is as predictable as it is insincere. But as the state’s only billionaire, Justice may have the resources to play faux conservative one last time before the Democrat Party finally shuts its doors and turns the lights off for good.

The Republican Party has nominated a well-credentialed conservative in State Senate President Bill Cole. In contrast to Justice’s mind-numbingly vague campaign, Cole shepherded into law tort reform, right-to-work, pro-life, and pro-gun legislation. While Justice was supporting the DNC and joining Obama’s Democrat Party, Cole was busy in the legislature repealing a state-based cap-and-trade act originally championed by none other than Joe Manchin.

West Virginia is always interesting, but the 2016 race for governor and 2018 race for U.S. Senate may be the final opportunities to watch the last vestiges of the classic Southern Democrat campaign lying technique in action.

Conrad Lucas is the chairman of the Republican Party of West Virginia.