Christie Gains From Walker Exit?

With Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s sudden departure from the Republican presidential sweepstakes, a governor who impressed conservatives by taking on public-sector labor unions while enjoying electoral success in a blue state now is out of the race.

That could either be a bad omen or an opening for another governor who impressed conservatives by taking on public employee unions while enjoying electoral success in a blue state — Chris Christie.

By the time Walker bowed out of the race Monday, the thrice-elected Wisconsin governor had slipped from top-tier contender to irrelevance.

The New Jersey governor has moved aggressively to recruit Walker’s donors and supporters. Stanley Hubbard, a Minnesota billionaire who had contributed $50,000 to a super PAC supporting Walker, told The Hill that Christie is in the mix — along with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and retried neurosurgeon Ben Carson — to win the support of him and his wife.

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By the time Walker bowed out of the race Monday, the thrice-elected Wisconsin governor had slipped from top-tier contender to irrelevance. A CNN/ORC poll showed support from less than 1 percent of registered Republican voters nationwide — below perennial basement-dweller Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator.

So it’s not like there are a ton of Walker supporters for Christie or other candidates to scoop up, and it’s unclear whether Christie, or any other candidate, would benefit from Walker’s exit.

“I think that question would have been answerable three or four weeks ago,” said Joel Aberbach, a professor at the Center for American Politics and Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “But he just self-destructed. From what I know of the polls, his support was pretty much gone.”

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Still, some analysts see Walker’s departure as an opportunity for Christie to expand his claim to the voters Walker was trying to appeal to — those looking for a Republican capable of winning on principle in a Democratic-leaning state. Like Walker in Wisconsin, Christie battled public employee unions in New Jersey. Like Walker, he gained a reputation for speaking plain truths. His campaign slogan is “Telling it like it is.”

It is a record that could provide a path to contention for Christie, perhaps even in Iowa, where Walker retained some residual support from his days earlier in the summer when he was the front-runner there.

“My suspicion is some of the more traditional candidates,” said Holmes. “I have a feeling they’re looking for someone with a little more substance.”

“You could make the case that Christie is the guy,” said Justin Holmes, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa.

Christie has plenty of obstacles. His national poll numbers are terrible — just 1.8 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average — and his negative ratings consistently rank among the highest in the GOP field. Holmes added that Christie also is not a natural ideological fit for culturally conservative Iowa voters.

“I think it would require a lot more than Scott Walker’s supporters to help Chris Christie,” said Ross K. Baker, a noted political scientist at New Jersey’s Rutgers University. “Candidly, I don’t know what’s keeping him in other than his distended ego. I think this is a campaign that’s on life support, and there doesn’t seem to be anyone willing to acknowledge it.”

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The way Baker sees it, there are many more Republican candidates who are more acceptable to the Republican electorate than Christie.

If not Christie, Holmes predicted, one or more of the candidates who have held public office may be in a better position to inherit Walker’s supporters in Iowa.

“At some point, even the most worshipful contributor” will balk at a candidate’s poor poll numbers.

“My suspicion is some of the more traditional candidates,” he said. “I have a feeling they’re looking for someone with a little more substance.”

Christie argued Wednesday on “The Laura Ingraham Show” that he is well-positioned to inherit Walker’s supporters, some of whom the New Jersey governor has known through his tenure as head of the Republican Governors Association.

“Everyone’s going to be competing hard for the folks who were supporting Gov. Walker. I think we’re going to do very well,” he said. “We think we’ll do very well for those folks.”

But Baker said “at some point, even the most worshipful contributor” will balk at a candidate’s poor poll numbers.

Sean Trende, an election analyst with RealClearPolitics, wrote Wednesday that the mass of candidates scoring similar poll results have no incentive to leave the race as long as they can pay the campaign bills.

“Chris Christie is stuck at two percent of the vote. On the other hand, he is six points out of third place,” he wrote. “Why wouldn’t he stick around, at least through New Hampshire, especially after watching Carly Fiorina’s rise?”