Centenarian Surge Lies Ahead

As long as we can remain active, healthy, and mentally sharp, most of us would give just about anything to see 100 years of age. We’d have grandkids (and great-grandkids?) to dote on, trips to take, hobbies to enjoy — and real downtime to relax after many decades of hard work. (Some of us might want to keep working, of course!)

While the century mark continues to elude many families, that could be changing.

The world had about half a million centenarians (people who have reached 100 or over) last year, according to the United Nations. That amount is more than four times what it was in 1990. But that’s nothing compared to what lies ahead: There will be about 3.7 million centenarians on the globe in 2050, experts predict.

More people over the age of 65 are living longer. The U.S. currently leads the world in the number of known centenarians, followed by Japan, China, India, and Italy. In America, there are 2.2 centenarians for every 10,000 people. By 2050, experts predict that China will have the largest centenarian population.

Dr. Tom Perls, a professor at the Boston University School of Medicine who heads up the New England Centenarian Study, said anyone who lives to the ages of 105 to 109 is known as a semi-super centenarian. If you make it over 110, you’re a super centenarian —  and there are only about 300 of them on the globe at any given time.

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The anticipated surge in centenarians corresponds to the large number of baby boomers.

“That’s why we’ll see this huge bump,” Perls told LifeZette. “Then as we get away from it, the number will probably decline a bit.”

People who take care of themselves “have the opportunity to live a greater portion of their lives in good health,” he said.

In the past, the thinking was that the older you got, the sicker you got, said Perls. He and other experts dispute that now. “It’s more the case that the older you get — the healthier you’ve been. If you have healthy behaviors, the only additional years you’re going to add are healthy years.”

Health History
The health issues that centenarians have differ from those experienced by people in their 60s or 70s.

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A study from King’s College London found that centenarians are more likely to die of pneumonia, frailty, or “old age,” compared to chronic conditions linked to old age such as cancer or ischemic heart disease.

Another study from the institution looked at the cause and place of death in 35,867 English centenarians between 2001 and 2010, comparing the findings on those who passed away in their 80s and 90s.

Of the centenarians, 87 percent were women; 85 percent were widowed. Over the span of 10 years, about 60 percent of them passed away at a residential or nursing care home; about 25 percent died in hospitals; about 10 percent died at home; and 0.2 percent died in hospice care. It found that 28 percent died from “old age,” 18 percent from pneumonia, 10 percent from strokes, 9 percent from heart disease, 6 percent from other respiratory diseases, 6 percent from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, and 4 percent from cancer.

“Centenarians have outlived death from chronic illness, but they are a group living with increasing frailty and vulnerability to pneumonia and other poor health outcomes,” Dr. Catherine Evans, a lecturer at King’s College London, said in a statement.

‘Functional Reserve’ 
Perls said that people who live to about 100 tend only to have disabilities during their last four or five years. He said even when they do develop an age-related disease, it is delayed because they have “some kind of functional reserve or adaptive capacity.” He added, “That’s not such a bad price to pay for living to such an old age.”

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“It’s only in those last few years of their very long lives that they’re costing society any money in terms of having to be taken care of,” Perls explained.

Diseases they do get are relatively inexpensive. Those who develop cognitive impairments such as Alzheimer’s disease or dementia don’t do so until later in life. And while there can be enormous struggles for families who must deal with this, the older people seem to deal with them for a shorter amount of time than others who die of these illnesses.

“The centenarians don’t die of cancer. They die of things that are quick like heart disease or stroke,” he said.

America will deal with the unique health needs of centenarians because their treatments can be relatively economical, Perls believes. Plus, when the baby boomers who become centenarians have died out, there shouldn’t be such a big surge in generations reaching 100 that follow them.

Medical advancements, better care, and healthier living, of course, mean some of us may join this exclusive club, too.

“The centenarians are a relatively small portion of the older population, and to me, they are a sign of a very healthy older population,” Perls added.